大肚山地區林火危險預測模式之推導

Modeling Fire Danger Prediction of Dadu Mountain Area

林朝欽(Chau-Chin Lin) ； 邱祈榮(Chyi-Rong Chiou) ； 陳明義(Ming-Yih Chen) ； 蕭其文(Chi-Wen Hsiao) ； 曾仁鍵(Jen-Chien Tseng)

《中華林學季刊》 38卷1期 (2005/03) Pp. 83-94

https://doi.org/10.30064/QJCF.200503.0006

摘要

本研究主要目的為針對大肚山地區所發生之林火現象加以分析，並就該地區之區域性及草生地為主之植被型態進行林火危險預測模式推導，選擇較佳之計算模式，以提供管理單位設立森林火災危險度預測系統之用。本研究蒐集大肚山地區林務局南投林區管轄之區外保安林、台中縣境外埔鄉、清水鎮、沙鹿鎮、龍井鄉、大肚鄉等公有地所發生之林火記錄；及中央氣象局之台中及梧棲氣象站逐日逐時氣象記錄。利用Logistic迴歸模式，以每日林火發生與否為依賴變數，氣象因子為獨立變數，推導林火發生機率模式。結果顯示大肚山地區之林火特性為3-5年短週期林火型態，此特性主要受植被中大黍草為主之生態環境影響。以當日及累積性之氣象因子推導之林火危險預測模式，發現當日最低相對濕度是重要的因子之一，模式可分蒸發量為主或乾旱量為主兩類，均有高的預測效力；其中蒸發量為主之模式R^2=0.811；乾旱量為主之模式R^2=0.754，但兩模式均仍無法反應短期內降雨影響及特殊人為活動所造成的引燃機會。

關鍵字

火燒頻率 ； 燃料 ； 引燃 ； 燃燒

並列摘要

The main purpose of the present study is to construct fire danger prediction models of Dadu mountain area where is dominated by grassland. We collected the fire records during 1991 to 2003 from Nantao Forestry District office of Taiwan Forestry Bureau and Taichung County to analyze fire history of this area. In addition to fire records, fire weather data were also gathered from Taichung and Wuchi weather station of Central Weather Bureau. By adopting Logistic modeling, two regression models which used fire record as the depend variable, and 20 weather variables as the independent variables, were constructed. The results show that fire regime in Dadu Mountain is a short fire regime type. Grassland type and the climate pattern are the two key factors to form this fire regime. The two regression models have high prediction power with R^2-0.811(evaporation dependent variables) and R^2-0.754(drought dependent variables). Though the two models can predict high fire danger probability, they have missed to predict those fires related to light precipitation effect and special human activities during the wet season.

並列關鍵字

Fire frequency ； Fuel ； Ignition ； Combustion