- 期刊
REDD施行對臺灣進口原木與製材衝擊之評估
The Impact of Implementing Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (Redd) on Import of Roundwood and Lumber in Taiwan
摘要
過去以來非法砍伐林木影響世界木材價格並威脅國家的永續發展。而在現今國際政策，如透過減少毀林所造成CO2排放的REDD等計畫的影響下，森林土地利用的經濟價值可望獲得提升，遏止這類非法砍伐問題。本研究即以台灣進口之原木與製材為對象，探討台灣的非法砍伐林木進口狀況，並模擬探討未來在杜絕非法砍伐林木下的三種情境：（1）未來對林木進口需求維持不變，林木來源轉移至其他國家/區域；（2）需求維持不變，林木來源改由國內供給；及（3）未來對林木進口需求減少。結果顯示台灣原木與製材進口分別有27至29%及24至31%為可疑非法的，主要來自馬來西亞；原木與製材進口在需求保持不變下可能增加1.6至2.9億美元的成本；若由國內生產替代供應，則需5,200至6,300 ha生產面積（約占國土面積之0.15-0.17%）；而維持成本則需減少16.0%的原木及6.5%的製材進口量。台灣應共同為降低非法砍伐林木努力，因應國際木材供應市場的可能變化，除了負擔可能增加之成本價格、尋找其他替代材料取代木材外，可由增加國內木材自給率、推動森林認證及永續採購進行，朝向森林永續經營。
並列摘要
Illegal logging has impacted on world timber prices and threatened sustainable development of nations. Under current international policies, such as REDD program, the value of forest land use has the potential to be increased and control illegal logging. In this research, imported log and lumber in Taiwan were invested to have brief understanding of import of illegal logging in Taiwan. Three scenarios were conducted to simulate potential influences of stopping illegal logging on Taiwan's timber market: (1) No change in need for timber import, and timber is exported from legal sources; (2) No change in need for timber import, and domestic timber supply is substituted for timber from illegal logging; (3) The need for timber decreases in order to maintain the cost. The results showed that 27-29% of log and 24-31% of lumber imports are from illegal logging, and mainly from Malaysia. If the need for timber does not change, it would require extra 160-290 million dollars to purchase the same amount of timber; by increasing domestic supply, 5,200-6,300 ha of forest land (0.15-0.17% of total area) is required to produce timber that was from illegal logging sources; 16.0% of log and 6.5% of lumber imports should be reduced in order to maintain the same cost. In future, Taiwan should make an effort to fight against illegal logging, and be aware of possible impacts on global timber supply market. In spite of increasing costs on timber import or using alternative materials, self-sufficiency ratio of timber could be enhanced. With forest certification system and sustainable procurement, sustainable forest management could be achieved.