- 學位論文
應用時間序列模式探討中國疑似非法原木貿易之研究
Appling Time Series Model to the Trade of Illegal Logs in China
摘要
1990年代中後期，國際社會開始逐漸重視森林非法採伐和相關貿易問題，非法採伐不但破壞了森林的永續性管理及公平性，也致使毀林、社會衝突及政府經濟的衝擊。中國為世界重要的木材消費與進口國，也因此可能成為非法木材的集散地，雖然中國近年來在打擊非法採伐及貿易上有做了很多努力，但仍有改進的空間。 首先，本文進行中國1992年到2014的原木進口量現況分析，發現中國進口量於2000年後開始有大量增長的趨勢，因此選定2000年到2014年作為分析主軸，接著，進行中國疑似非法原木進口量的估算，並探究影響中國疑似非法原木進口量的因素，建立一時間序列模式並預測2014年進口量的走勢，最後，為遏止中國疑似非法原木貿易的發生，提出了相對應的策略與建議。 實證結果顯示：1、出口國的GDP增加1%，平均使得中國疑似非法原木進口量增加5,591立方公尺；森林覆蓋率增加1%，平均疑似非法進口量增加124,376立方公尺；農村人口比率增加1%，平均疑似非法原木進口量減少159,866立方公尺。2、平均而言，影響疑似非法進口量多寡的地區，由最高至最低分別為，俄羅斯地區、大洋洲地區、非洲地區、東南亞地區以及南美洲地區。3、不同年度的事件，對中國疑似非法原木進口量產生迥然差異，2000年，發生事件為中國自主進口，估計進口量增加2,470,273立方公尺；2004年，發生南亞海嘯，估計進口量減少2,715,077立方公尺；2008年，發生金融海嘯，估計進口量下滑891,472立方公尺；2012年，發生國際防堵轉移，估計進口量增加1,075,970立方公尺。4、2014年，預測量與實際進口量，兩者差異高達400萬立方公尺，原因主要來自於巴布亞新幾內亞、俄羅斯、莫三比克等國家，這些國家總共增量約378.6萬立方公尺。
並列摘要
In the late 1990s, the international community began to pay attention to illegal logging and associated trade of forest, illegal logging not only undermined the fairness and sustainable management of forests, also led to deforestation, social conflict and the government's economic impact. China is the major consumer of timber and importing country, and thus may become illegal timber distribution center in recent years. Although China have made a lot of effort to combat illegal logging and trade, but there is rare improvement. First, this research analyzed the situation of timber imports in China from 1992 to 2014, finding that China imports grew up exponentially after 2000 so selecting the time from 2000 to 2014 as the main analysis time. Then, estimate China suspected of illegal timber imports, explore factors that affected China suspected of illegal timber imports, establish a time series model and forecast 2014 imports of the trend. Eventually, to prevent China from trading suspected of illegal timber, proposing some corresponding strategies and recommendations. The empirical results showed: 1, GDP from exporting countries increased by 1% and then the average amount of suspected illegal timber imports increased 5,591 cubic meters; forest coverage increased by 1%, the average amount of suspected illegal timeber imports increased 124,376 cubic meters; rural population ratio increased 1%, with an average of suspected illegal timber imports decreasing 159,866 cubic meters. 2, on average, affecting the amount of suspected illegal imports of areas, from the highest to the lowest, respectively, were Russian regions, Oceania, Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. 3, events from different years affected China's suspected illegal timber imports vastly. In 2000, the event of independent imports in China happened, imports increased by an estimated 2,470,273 cubic meters; in 2004, tsunami in southeast Asia occured, it is estimated to reduce imports of 2,715,077 cubic meters; in 2008, the financial crisis occured, the estimated volume of imports fell 891,472 cubic meters; 2012, international event preventing countries from trading illegal timber occured, it is estimated to increased imports of 1,075,970 cubic meters. 4, 2014, the difference between forecast values and the actual amount of imports was up to 4 million cubic meters because Papua New Guinea, Russia, Mozambique and other countries traded illegal timber with China, and total amount of illegal timber trade were about 3.786 million cubic meters.