東亞經濟整合與台灣的戰略

East Asian Economic Integration and Taiwan's Strategy

童振源(Chen-Yuan Tung)

《問題與研究》 45卷2期 (2006/04) Pp. 25-60

https://doi.org/10.30390/ISC.200604_45(2).0002

摘要

本文分析東亞經濟整合趨勢、東亞經濟整合內容與機制、東亞經濟整合對台灣的影響（包括評估東亞經濟整合的貿易創造與轉移效應，以及投資創造與轉移效應）進而提出台灣因應東亞經濟整合的戰略。作者建議，台灣應該積極主動推動全球貿易與投資自由化，才能化解中國對台灣的政治阻撓。在雙邊經貿關係的突破上，台灣應該推動與中國、日本、美國及香港的自由貿易協定或全面經濟伙伴關係協定。特別是，台灣應該與美國及日本建立戰略經濟伙伴關係。此外，台灣應與拉丁美洲國家、東南亞國家簽訂「貿易與投資便利協定」或「全面經濟伙伴協議」。基於鞏固邦誼與推動亞太自由貿易體制的戰略考量，台灣也應該與其邦交國建立雙邊經濟整合架構。最後，台灣應該積極推動單邊貿易與投資體制的自由化。

關鍵字

東亞經濟整合 ； 貿易創造與轉移 ； 投資創造與轉移 ； CGE模型 ； 自由貿易協議

並列摘要

This paper analyzes the trend, content, and mechanism of East Asian economic integration and its impact on Taiwan, including the assessment of trade creation and diversion, as well as investment creation and diversion of East Asian economic integration. Finally, this paper concludes with Taiwan's strategy in response to East Asian economic integration. The author suggests that Taiwan should actively advocate global trade and investment liberalization in order to overcome China's political objection against Taiwan. In terms of bilateral economic relations, Taiwan should promote free trade agreements or comprehensive economic partnership agreements with China, Japan, the United States, and Hong Kong. In particular, Taiwan should forge strategic economic partnerships with both the United States and Japan. In addition, Taiwan should sign trade and investment convenience agreements or comprehensive economic partnership agreements with Latin American and South East Asian countries. From the strategic perspective of consolidating its diplomatic relation and promoting the Asia-Pacific free trade regime, Taiwan should establish bilateral economic integration frameworks with its diplomatic allies. Finally, Taiwan should actively promote unilateral liberalization of its trade and investment regime.

並列關鍵字

East Asian economic integration ； trade creation and diversion ； investment creation and diversion ； CGE model ； free trade agreement

參考文獻

工商時報(2004/08/14)

經濟日報(2005/11/30)

經濟日報

經濟日報(2005/11/09)

黃兆仁、朱浩(2004)。東亞經貿整合中長期趨勢與台灣定位。台北:行政院經濟建設委員會。