整合模型評估都市運輸供需分析之研究

傳統旅運需求預測模型是藉由旅次發生、旅次分佈、運具選擇及交通量指派等階段，以循序的方式廣泛應用於都市運輸規劃問題。然而，此種方式無法在社經資訊不足的條件下進行未來旅運需求的預測。因此，近年來面對都市旅運需求預測的問題，整合各旅運決策階段的模型應運而生。本研究認為旅運者路徑選擇成本為各決策階段的成本組合，受到各決策階段成本的影響，最終反映在實體路網的路徑選擇行為。因此，應著重點於實體路網的流量狀態所反映的旅運時間及供需關係。本研究利用B演算法結合變數產生器求解整合模型問題。數值測試的結果能充分展現都市運輸設施供需水準，以及都市生活圈與運作效率等資訊，對於提供未來都市運輸策略發展評估平台做出貢獻。

關鍵字

旅運需求預測；整合模型； B演算法；變數產生器

並列摘要

The traditional four-step model has been widely used in travel demand forecasting, considering trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment sequentially in urban transportation planning. However, this approach is unable to obtain future travel demands under without socio-economic information. Recently, this problem has been addressed by many researchers who have sought to develop combined models that can consider travelers' choice on different stages simultaneously. This research considers the path cost as the sum of each step and the travelers' choice results can be affected by other cost procedures. However, practical applications should focus on physical network traffic flows status, and as reflected in travel demand and travel time. In order to solve the urban transportation plan problem, the ＂B＂ algorithm with a column generation is adopted. Experimental results can demonstrate enough information for urban transport facilities supply and demand as well as the living area of policy development.

並列關鍵字

travel demand forecasting ； combined models ；＂B＂ algorithm ； column generation

國際替代計量

整合模型評估都市運輸供需分析之研究

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