運輸需求預測整合模型統合架構之探討

A Combined Model for the Four-step Travel Demand Forecasting Procedure

陳惠國(Huey-Kuo Chen) ； 陳文婷(Wen-Ting Chen)

《運輸學刊》 24卷4期 (2012/12) Pp. 467-495

https://doi.org/10.6383/JCIT.201212.0467

摘要

基於用路人行為之均衡原則，本研究構建包括旅次發生、旅次分配、運具選擇與交通量指派在內之四階段整合模型，以克服傳統旅運預測之四階段界面不一致性的問題。整合模型經由改良後之超級路網的詮釋，可視為一個延伸性交通量指派問題。本研究以Frank-Wolfe演算法求解小規模路網，分別針對線性與非線性路正是成本函數加以驗證，並歸納出需求函數之係數的限制，文末亦比較整合模型與反饋式循序性核型之優劣點，並做出結論與建議。

關鍵字

旅次發生 ； 旅次分配 ； 運具選擇 ； 交通量指派 ； 整合性模型 ； 超級路網

並列摘要

Based on Wardrop's first principle, this research formulates a combined model covering the four steps, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, traffic assignment, embedded in the traditional travel demand forecasting procedure. Using a modified supernetwork representation, the proposed combined model can be naturally regarded as an extension of the fixed demand traffic assignment model. The proposed combined model and the associated Frank-Wolfe algorithm are demonstrated with a hypothesized small network characterized by both linear and nonlinear link cost functions. The experiment also indicates that a certain restriction must be imposed on the parameters of origin-destination travel demand functions to ensure the convergence of applicable solution algorithms. A comparison of our proposed combined model and the sequential travel demand forecasting with feedback was also made. A few remarks are given in the end.

並列關鍵字

Trip generation ； Trip distribution ； Modal split ； Traffic assignment ； Combined model ； Supernetwork

參考文獻

林國顯、孫以濬、李宗益()。,未出版。

陳惠國(2009)。運輸規劃與網路。臺中:滄海書局。

陳惠國、陳穎俊()。

詹勻沂(2009)。探討動態路網環境下之程序性運輸規劃模式回饋程序(碩士論文)。淡江大學運輸管理學系。

Bar-Gera, H.,Boyce, D.(2006).Solving a Nonconvex Combined Travel Forecasting Model by The Method of Successive Averages with Constant Step Sizes.Transportation Research Part B: Methodological.40,351-367.