Monthly Variation and Forecasting of Number of Visitor in Chitou Forest Recreation Area

溪頭森林遊樂區遊客人數月際變動之分析與預測

任憶安(I-An Jen)

《戶外遊憩研究》 4卷1期 (1991/03) Pp. 67-76

https://doi.org/10.6130/JORS.1991.4(1)4

摘要

自1973至1989年溪頭森林遊樂區遊客人數月際資料加以分析，發現該遊樂區月際遊客人數有明顯變動，自一月至二月，三月至四月，六月至七月，九月至十月，十月至十一月，及十二月至次年一月遊客人數將增加，其機率分別爲76%、88%、100%、76%、64%及76%。由二月至三月，四月至五月，五月至六月，七月至八月，八月至九月及十一月至十二月遊客人數將減少，其機率分別爲88%、70%、94%、76%、92%及100%。

關鍵字

月際變異 ； 月際預測 ； 遊客人數 ； 溪頭森林遊樂區

並列摘要

The monthly data on visitor's number collected from Chitou Forest Recreation Area (CFRA) during the period of 1973-1989 was studied. It was found that there is a significant monthly pattern in number of visitor for the CFRA. During the following period, January to February, March to April, June to July, September to October, October to November and December to next January, the chance for the number of visitor to increase was found to be 76%, 88%, 100%, 76%, 64%, and 76%. On the other hand, number of visitor were decreased during the following period, February to March, April to May, May to June., July to August, August to september, and November to December. The probability of the number of visitor to decrease was 88%, 70%, 94%, 76%, 92% and 100%, respectively.

並列關鍵字

monthly variation ； monthly prediction ； number of visitor ； Chitou Forest Recreation Area