近年,少子化與經濟不景氣的環境已對台灣社會產生廣泛的影響,本研究預期此現象也將對觀光遊樂業的經營與管理產生重大的衝擊。首先,本研究選用ARIMA研究方法,針對1991至2012年23家觀光遊樂業的遊客人數進行分析與預測。其次,將23家觀光遊樂業依區域分布,另行區分北部、中部、東部與南部等四個區域進行區域觀光遊樂業遊客人數預測模式推估。 本研究發現,以MSPE預測指標準則建立的ARIMA模型,是一個良好的台灣觀光遊樂業遊客人數預測模式。根據本研究的預測模式,顯示各地區遊客人數的季節波動十分明顯,同時,本研究也發現:隨著季節的改變,遊客旅遊區域地點的選擇也會跟著調整,這可能來自於區域間隨著季節的氣候變化、節慶舉辦、縣市觀光活動等區域的因素有關。此外,根據本研究預測結果,北部和中部地區觀光遊樂業遊客人數在2013年相對於2012年呈現上升的現象,但南部和東部地區觀光遊樂業遊客人數則呈現下降的現象。但加總四個區域,整體台灣觀光遊樂業遊客人數預測趨勢呈微幅成長的現象,但此一上升幅度並不大,這也顯示台灣觀光遊樂業樂觀前景是否已經到來,仍有待觀察。 根據本研究的分析結果,本研究最後針對觀光遊樂業者的經營策略與政府部門的休閒事業政策提出建議。
The objective of this paper is to construct a autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with number of visitors using data sources from Tourism Bureau M. O. T. C., Republic of China and to utilize this model to forecast the regional number of visitors for Taiwan amusement parks. The monthly data of time series (1991 to 2012) including the visitors of 23 Taiwan amusement parks are used in this study. In our study, 23 Taiwan amusement parks are separated by four regions, including northern region, middle region, northern region and eastern region. Empirical results show that the prediction performance of ARIMA is the useful tools for forecasting number of visitors, using MSPE forecast performance index. The paper shows that Taiwan amusement parks have strong seasonal variations, especially four regional areas. Our results of forecasting values show that the number of visitors will increase in northern and middle Taiwan amusement parks. We also show that the number of visitors will decrease in southern and eastern Taiwan amusement parks. Although the time trends of the number of visitors are different patterns in four regions, the total number of visitors in Taiwan amusement parks will increase in 2013. We expect the study findings will provide information for the Taiwan amusement parks as a reference of management and planning in the future.