台灣主要水庫遊客人次影響因素之研究

An Empirical Study on the Determinants of the Number of Visitors for the Reservoir Scenic Areas in Taiwan

蔡淑芬(SHU-FEN TSAI)

指導教授 ： 陳建宏 ； 林鳴琴

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/財務金融系/碩士(2017年)

摘要

研究主要探討影響各水庫遊客人次變動之因素，以石門水庫、曾文水庫、烏山頭水庫、日月潭、蘭潭水庫、尖山埤水庫、虎頭埤水庫、澄清湖水庫、龍鑾潭水庫等9大水庫為研究對象，並以颱風次數、溫度、溫差、降雨日數、非假日及台灣每戶每人可支配所得等自變數資料，建立迴歸模型，探討各自變數對遊客人次變動因素之影響，主要結論如下： 一、颱風次數對尖山埤水庫的遊客人次呈現負向影響，因颱風經常造成山區災情或交通中斷，降低民眾出外旅遊意願。 二、溫度對石門水庫、日月潭的遊客人次呈現負向影響，但對龍鑾潭水庫的遊客人次則呈現正向影響。一般而言，溫度越高，較不舒適，遊客出門旅遊意願降低，惟龍鑾潭水庫位處南部炎熱區域，但民眾可能前往該自然生態教室屬室內活動較多，故遊客反而增加。 三、降雨日數對石門水庫、澄清湖、龍鑾潭水庫的遊客人次呈現負向影響，可見降雨時出門不便，會影響民眾旅遊意願。 四、非假日對石門水庫、曾文水庫、日月潭、烏山頭水庫、蘭潭水庫及虎頭埤水庫的遊客人次皆呈現負向影響。由於一般旅遊大多集中在假日，若當月非假日多，遊客人數會減少。 五、每戶每人可支配所得對石門水庫、烏山頭水庫、蘭潭水庫、尖山埤水庫及澄清湖的遊客人次呈現正向影響，表示水庫旅遊為正常財，因為可支配所得提高，對休閒活動需求增加，民眾願意從事旅遊活動。而每戶每人可支配所得對曾文水庫、虎頭埤水庫及龍鑾潭水庫呈現負向影響，表示此三水庫旅遊活動為劣等財，可能是交通、知名度、活動吸引力等因素，或者因為所得增加，國人傾向到熱門主題遊樂園消費等，以致此三水庫觀光客反而減少。日月潭的遊客大部分為國際觀光客，因此本國的每戶每人可支配所得對遊客人次沒有影響。

關鍵字

遊客人次 ； 水庫 ； 可支配所得

並列摘要

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the changes in the number of tourists at various Reservoirs in Taiwan. This study selected 9 reservoirs, including Shimen Reservoir, Zengwen Reservoir, Wusanto Reservoir, Sun Moon Lake, Lantan Reservoir, Jianshan Reservoir, Hu-Tou Pei Reservoir, Chengcing Lake, and Longluantan Reservoir, as the research subjects, and used the number of typhoons, temperature, temperature difference, number of rainy days, non-holidays, and household disposable income per person in Taiwan as the independent variables to develop the regression model and investigate the effect of various independent variables on the changes in the number of tourists. The main conclusions are as follows:
1.Number of typhoons has a negative effect on the number of tourists at Jianshan Reservoir. Because typhoons tend to cause disasters or traffic interruption in mountainous area, tourists’ intention to pay a visit is reduced.
2.Temperature has a negative effect on the number of tourists at Shimen Reservoir and Sun Moon Lake. However, it has a positive effect on the number of tourists at Longluantan Reservoir. In general, the weather is more uncomfortable at higher temperature, and tourists’ intention to pay a visit is reduced. However, although Longluantan Reservoir is located in a hot area in the southern Taiwan, tourists mainly visit it to engage in indoor activities of natural ecology classroom. Therefore, the number of tourists is increased instead.
3.The number of rainy days has a negative effect on the number of tourists at Shimen Reservoir, Chengcing Lake, and Longluantan Reservoir, suggesting that the inconvenience caused by rainy days affects tourists’ intention to pay a visit.
4.Non-holidays have a negative effect on the number of tourists at Shimen Reservoir, Zengwen Reservoir, Sun Moon Lake, Wusanto Reservoir, Lantan Reservoir and Hu-Tou Pei Reservoir. Because tourists mainly pay visit the said reservoirs on holidays, if the number of non-holidays in a month is larger, the number of tourists will be reduced.
5.The household disposable income per person has a positive effect on the number of tourists at Shimen Reservoir, Wusanto Reservoir, Lantan Reservoir, Jianshan Reservoir and Chengcing Lake, suggesting that reservoir tourism is normal good. Because if the disposable income is increased, the need for leisure activities will be increased and general public will be willing to engage in tourism activities. However, the household disposable income per person has a negative effect on the number of tourists at Zengwen Reservoir, Hu-Tou Pei Reservoir and Longluantan Reservoir, suggesting that the reservoir tourism activities at these three reservoirs are inferior good. The increase in income and citizens’ tendency to engage in consumption at popular theme parks may decrease the number of tourists at these three reservoirs. The tourists at Sun Moon Lake are mainly international tourists. Therefore, the household disposable income per person in Taiwan does not have any effect on the number of tourists.

並列關鍵字

Number of Tourists ； Reservoir ； Disposable Income

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