台灣地區國有林森林遊樂區遊客人數與營收變動之分析，1990-1998

Fluctuation of Tourist Number and Revenue of the National Forest Recreation Areas in Taiwan, 1990-1998

塗三賢(Asan Tu) ； 吳萬益(Wann-Yih Wu) ； 林俊成(Jiunn-Cheng Lin) ； 任憶安(Ian Jen)

《戶外遊憩研究》 12卷4期 (1999/12) Pp. 61-72

https://doi.org/10.6130/JORS.1999.12(4)4

摘要

本研究係調查台灣地區國有森林在遊憩利用上遊客人數與營收（包括門票、住宿、停車費等）的變動情形，其中有14個林務局所屬及1個國立台灣大學所經營的森林遊樂區。林務局所屬14個森林遊樂區的總遊客人數從1990年時的237萬人次增加到1998年時的350萬人次，平均每年增加率大約為5.2%，而總營收從1990年時的新台幣2.80億元增加到1998年時的新台幣4.79億元，平均每年增加率大約為7.8%。ARIMA模式用以分析各遊樂區遊客人數與營收之變動規律。結果顯示，大型森林遊樂區的每年遊客人數與營收的變異要小於中、小型的森林遊樂區。大部份森林遊樂區均有明顯的月際變動，但全部並無一致的變動規律。本文同時也分析了各森林遊樂區遊憩活動的月際差異，並找出各森林遊樂區每年中遊憩活動的高峰期月份。

關鍵字

森林遊樂區 ； 遊客人數 ； 時間數列分析

並列摘要

The recreational use of the national forests in Taiwan was investigated by using data on tourist number and revenue (from fees of entrance, boarding and parking) of fourteen forest recreation areas owned by the Taiwan Forestry Bureau (TFB) and one managed by the National Taiwan University (NTU). Total number of tourist of the fourteen forest recreation areas owned by the TFB increased from 2.37 million persons in 1990 to 3.50 million persons in 1998, with an average annual growth rate of 5.2 percent, while total revenue increased from NT$ 280 million in 1990 to NT$ 479 million in 1998 at a growth rate of 7.8 percent annually. The ARIMA model was used to analyze fluctuation patterns of number of tourist and revenue of each forest recreation area. Results show that variations of both number of tourist and revenue of the large-sized recreation areas are smaller than that of medium-sized and small-sized ones. Most recreation areas have significantly monthly change in either number of tourist or revenue. However, no identical pattern was found. This paper also examined monthly difference in recreation activity of each forest recreation area and determine peak of month of the activity within a year.

並列關鍵字

Forest recreation areas ； Number of tourist ； Time series analysis