根據聯合國世界觀光組織(World Tourism Organization,UNWTO)指出,「觀光」已經成為許多國家賺取外匯與經濟發展的首要來源,更預測大陸將成為世界出境旅遊主要的來源國之一,因此各國皆想爭取大陸觀光市場所創造出之商機。 本研究以灰色系統理論(Grey System Theory)之灰色預測(Grey Prediction)GM(1,1)模式針對大陸來台旅客人數進行預測,分別建構不同區間之時間序列灰色預測模式,並驗證其適用性。並進一步預測其潛在之消費潛力,以提供政府相關單位與觀光業者之參考依據。 研究結果顯示,GM(1,1)季模型之值適用性較佳,另本研究進一步運用殘差修正模式,修正觀光淡旺季對預測準確性之影響。根據殘差修正GM(1,1)季模式之預測結果,2011年與2012年大陸來台旅客人數分別為約213萬人及310萬人。本研究進一步推估大陸旅客人數若達預期,2011年與2012年將可創造1,198億及1,741億之消費潛力。
World Tourism Organization(WTO) has reported that tourism is becoming an important source of income and economic impetus to many countries. China, in recent year, has been predicted to be one of the largest sources of outbound tourists in the world, therefore, many countries are striving for appealing more visitors from China to earn larger tourism market share . The study adopted Grey Prediction GM(1,1) of Grey System Theory to forecast the number of China visitors to Taiwan and also verify its applicability through constructing forecasting models in different intervals of time series. A Consumption Potential Analysis was conducted, and the result will be provided as a reference to the relevant government agencies and tourism industry . The study results indicated that the GM(1,1) model of quarterly is the most applicable. In addition, the study further used Residual Modification model to reduce the effects of season on visitor number, such as visitors of in season and off season, to enhance the accuracy of predicted results. According to the results of the Residual Modification GM(1,1) model of quarterly, the number of China visitors to Taiwan in 2011 and 2012 are about 2.13 million and 3.1 million people respectively. The estimated number of China visitors to Taiwan is expected to create 119.8 billion and 174.1 billion consumer potential in 2011 and 2012 respectively.