灰預測在台灣地區電力需求上之應用研究

Electric Power Demand Forecasting in Taiwan via Grey Prediction

畢威寧(Wei-Ning Pi) ； 劉亮成(Liang-Cheng Liou)

《科學與工程技術期刊》 3卷2期 (2007/06) Pp. 11-18

https://doi.org/10.7117/JSET.200706.0011

摘要

預測的方法很多，但通常需要大量的數據為基礎；灰預測所需的歷史資料少而預測結果佳。本研究以灰預測模型做電力需求預測，預測結果與經濟部能源局發布之資料進行比對，以確認其準確性。在與官方發布之2001-2005年的實際電力消耗資料進行驗證時，誤差多維持在2%以內，精準度相當高，因而本研究可提供電力需求預測之另一種選擇。

關鍵字

電力需求 ； 需求預測 ； 灰預測

並列摘要

There are many methods for predicting electric power requirements, but most forecasting models usually require many data. Needing only a few historical data, the grey prediction method obtains good results for forecasting. Therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model to forecast demand for electric power in Taiwan. For accuracy, the results obtained with this model are also compared with the official published data. Verified with Taiwan's official electric power consumption data from the years 2001-2005, the variations are within 2% for most years. This concurrence of data indicates that grey prediction can be an effective alternative method for forecasting electric power consumption.

並列關鍵字

electric power requirements ； electric power forecasting ； grey prediction