台灣手工具產業出口值長期趨勢之研究

The Study of the Long-term Trend of Export Value in Taiwan’s Hand Tools Industry

林松楨(Sung-Chen Lin)

指導教授 ： 王親仁

國立臺中科技大學/商學院/企業管理系事業經營碩士班/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6826/NUTC.2013.00055

摘要

我國手工具產業的出口價值與數量曾高居世界第一，賺取相當外匯及奠定下深厚工業技術的基礎。近年來，新興國家的興起使得相關生產成本，如人力成本、土地成本、關稅成本等等大幅降低，加上世界經濟環境的變化，國際匯率的波動，以及企業信用評等的影響，使企業莫不追求在更低的環境成本下獲得更穩定的利潤來源。
然而手工具產業，具有廠商規模小、群聚明顯、勞力密集與技術密集等特性，加以產業的進入障礙低，導致越來越多的廠商加入生產的行列。由於產業進入條件相對的低，部分廠商為增加其競爭力，乃致力尋求更好的生產環境及更低的生產成本，產業外移醞釀而生。相對地，當台灣產業將生產活動移轉到他國地區時，造成包含國家競爭力、GDP成長、產業產值、生產活動、技術的移轉及人口就業的變動，間接影響產業及國家經濟的發展。2009年受到金融海嘯的衝擊，我國出口值大幅下滑，為挽救我國相關傳統產業出口的困境，政府及工會社團不斷的進行招募外商、擴大採購和產業升級等相關的措施，企圖為我國的傳統產業注入新的活力與競爭優勢。
本研究以灰色理論之灰關聯分析法，對可能影響我國手工具產業出口值變動因素進行分析，藉以瞭解手工具出口值與其變數間之關聯程度，並對我國手工具產業出口值長期變動趨勢進行預測。
以灰關聯分析發現，我國手工具產業出口值與歐盟國家間的國內產毛額GDP的關聯程度較大；且歐元對美元匯率變動的關聯程度大於其他國家貨幣對美元匯率的變動。另以灰色模型GM(1,1)預測我國手工具產業出口值的長期趨勢，結果顯示灰色理論預測模式在預測手工具產業出口值的準確度相對較移動平均法、指數平滑法及線性迴歸等傳統的預測方法為高。
因此，本研究結果不僅可做為手工具產業生產計畫及銷售額預測之參考，更能協助業者掌握影響手工具出口值關聯因素，進而提升手工具產業之整體績效。

關鍵字

手工具產業 ； 灰色理論 ； 出口值 ； 長期趨勢

並列摘要

The value and quantity of export in Hand Tools manufacturing had ever been on the top of the world, and making a tremendous of foreign exchange and establishing industrial technical foundation. Lately, the developing countries have been uprising on the producing markets, then dramatically reduce the production cost, such as labor cost, land cost and facilities cost etc.. In additional, the changes of globe economic, the fluctuation of exchange rate and enterprise credibility valuation will force enterprises seeking lower cost manufacturing places in order to obtain more profits.
However, Taiwan hand tools industry is often clustered with small scale manufacturers in the same vicinity location all trying to operate with the same disadvantages of high labor costs. Additionally, co-location reduced the barriers to entry because the overall infrastructure including support services was already in place in these locations. As a result, more and more manufacturers joined the array of hand tools producers. Under such economic pressure, some manufacturers sought to increase their competitiveness by means of immigrating themselves to other countries for finding better production environment with lower production costs even if relocating was required. When formerly based Taiwan industries move their production overseas, there is a negative impact on national competitiveness, GDP growth, and industrial production. In addition the technology transfer that lessens Taiwan’s competitive advantages and results in a drop in the employment of the population, it will indirectly affect the overall industrial and domestic economic development of the country. The 2009 global financial crisis resulted in a shock to the world economy and the sharply decline of Taiwan’s exports . Realizing the seriousness of the situation and attempting to restore some level of exports from Taiwan, the government pursued recruiting foreign investment and upgrading the infrastructure to install the industry’s vitality and competitive advantages.
The gray relational analysis of gray theory is used to analyze possible influent factors of hand tools industry exports value changes, so as to learn which variables are the most important in analyzing hand tools export value and all correlated variables with the aim to clarify the long-term trends for export in this industry.
The gray relational analysis found that Taiwan’s hand tools export value is more associated with their GDP growth in European Union countries, while the correlation of changes in the euro-dollar exchange rates is relatively more important than that of changes in the exchange rate between any other countries. Based on the gray model, GM (1,1) for forecasting the long-term trends of export value in Taiwan’s hand tools industry, it obtains a more accurate prediction than simply using the rolling average, exponential smoothing, or linear regression analysis.
Therefore, our findings can not only be used as a reference tools for planning the industry’s production projects and forecasting sales value, but also more effectively assist manufacturers to master the relevant factors that affect the associated hand tools export value, and thus improve the overall performance of the hand tools industry.

並列關鍵字

hand tools industry ； gray theory ； export value ； long-term trends

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