隨著經濟發展與所得的提升,人們出國觀光的頻率也愈趨頻繁,觀光旅遊業不論是對各國或全球的經濟與就業,其貢獻度增加。因此若能有效地預測旅遊需求,即對一國之入境旅客人次做準確地預測,對其政府與觀光業者在規劃、投資或運作上皆能有實務上的助益。觀光旅遊業對澳門尤其重要,由於當地博彩業的興盛,吸引許多觀光客選擇去澳門旅遊,澳門大部分的經濟來自於旅遊業與博彩業的貢獻。 灰色理論GM(1,1)模型已應用至許多領域的預測上,其一大特點為所需資料少且準確度高。目前還沒有文獻使用灰色理論來預測澳門的旅遊需求,因此本文希望使用GM(1,1)模型來驗證其是否能成為一個有效預測入境澳門旅客的方法。 本文使用澳門統計暨普查局1997年1月至2012年12月的入境旅客人次資料,利用GM(1,1)模型在不同筆數下對2006年至2007年的月資料與2011年至2012年的年、季、月資料分別作預測。接著使用MAPE與RMSE當作評斷預測能力之指標,藉以從中找出最佳預測的方法。最後與過去同樣研究澳門旅遊需求的其他預測法作比較,雖然灰色理論GM(1,1)模型的預測誤差較大,但其MAPE小於10%,且所需時間及成本較其他方法來得少,表示GM(1,1)模型可在有限的環境下作高度準確地預測。
The travel and tourism industry has been making more contribution to the world’s economy and employment, especially for Macau. The Macau’s economy heavily relies on its tourism and gambling industry. Thus ,forecasting numbers of people who travel to Macau can be very helpful in planning and investing tourism industry. Grey theory: GM (1,1) model has been applied to many fields. Its big feature is that it requires fewer information than other forecasting methods, and it still has good accuracy. However, there is no literature using grey theory to predict tourism demand to Macau. In this article, we want to find that if GM (1,1) model can do a good prediction for visitors to Macau. We use data from January, 1997 to December,2012, collected from Macau Statistics and Census Bureau. And then we construct and use GM (1,1) model to forecast the numbers of visitors travel to Macau. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) and root mean square errors(RMSE) are adopted for evaluating the accuracy of GM(1,1) model. Finally, GM(1,1) model is compared with other forecasting models. Although GM(1,1) model is less accurate than other three models , its MAPE is less than 10%, the accuracy of GM(1,1) model is good and it does not cost too much time to predict.