- 學位論文
應用灰色理論於廚具設備銷售量之預測-以個案公司為例
A Case Study of Kitchen Equipment Market Forecasting by Grey Theory
摘要
在這瞬息萬變的新時代中，預測未來的銷售量於企業經營管理中佔其相當重要的一環，在傳統廚具業中，預測未知的銷售量也是必要的工作。為了準確預測未來，許多預測的理論及模型陸續地被提出，但傳統的預測模型經常面臨必須收集長期且大量的歷史數據資料，導致所花費的時間較長，且其預測模型的反應之能力不佳等問題也會發生。 灰色預測GM(1,1)模型僅需四筆歷史資料即可見建模，本研究即利用此特性以預測個案公司的廚具設備(熱水器、排油煙機、瓦斯爐及烘碗機)銷售數量並分析其誤差之情形。首先依據個案公司提供之2010年至2014年的廚具設備銷售數量建立預測模型，其結果顯示各項廚具設備之預測精準度均達94%以上，表示此預測模型是具有可靠度的。預測模型預測2015年至2019年銷售值，其結果顯示未來5年個案公司每項廚具設備皆有顯著的成長，並發現2019年熱水器的預測銷售數量會比2014年的銷售數量成長了1.09倍，而排油煙機、瓦斯爐及烘碗機的部份則分別成長了1.61倍、1.76倍及1.75倍。另外2019年的預測總銷售數量會比2014年的總銷售數量成長1.55倍，其中瓦斯爐的部份更會佔其整體廚具設備銷售比例的30%，將成為個案公司新熱銷產品。
並列摘要
In this changeable new generation, predicting the sales volume in marketing management plays the essential part and it can be applied into kitchen cabinet industry. For more precise prediction, more and more theory and model has been carried out continuously. However, the traditional way of predicting model takes too much database for analyze and it required much more time, which end up with inaccurate result. Grey prediction GM(1,1) model required only four database to build up a model which shorten a lot of time. This research used GM(1,1) model to predict the sales volume of kitchen cabinet accessories such as range hood, water heater, gas hob and dish dryer and analyze the different outcome. Based on the selected company, GM(1,1) model showed that the sales volume between 2010 to 2014 has reached the accuracy above 94%, which means GM(1,1) model is highly reliable. The model also predicted the sales volume will increase during the next five years between 2015 to 2019. Furthermore, compared to 2014, the sales volume of water heater will increase 1.09 times, range hood ,gas hob and dish dryer will increase 1.61 times, 1.76 times and 1.75 times respectively during 2019. The gas hob sale volume takes up to 30% of the total kitchen accessory, which is the best seller.