應用灰色理論探討墾丁國家公園遊客數量變化

發展觀光為政府重要的施政目標之一，但唯有掌握遊客數量之變化方能了解經營之成效，也才能評估目標達成之可行性。墾丁國家公園是我國第一個國家公園，不僅蘊藏相當豐富的生物資源及不同類型的生態體系，更是著名的國際觀光景點，而當政府積極推動「觀光客倍增計畫」之時，此一區域是否得以順利達成目標，實應予以事先評估。為達前述目的，本研究以墾丁國家公園歷年來之遊客資料為材料，除探討其變化情形外，並結合「灰色理論」中之「灰預測」與「灰關聯」預測其遊客數量與關聯因子，所得結果均證實可行，因此本研究對於園區之經營管理，應具有一定之參考價值。

關鍵字

墾丁國家公園；灰預測；灰關聯

並列摘要

Developing tourism is one of the most important policies of the Government. But in order to understand the management effects and to evaluate the accomplishment of management, we should control the variation of tourists exactly. Kenting National Park is the first National Park in Taiwan. Owing to possess abundant biological resource and high-diversity ecosystem, it became a famous tourist attraction. While the Government is getting 'Double-tourist plan' in moving, the National Park is as important as can be. But the administration office must in view of ”the purpose can be approached or not?” so it must be evaluated in advance. For this purpose, we discussed the variation of tourists in first. Then we used the 'grey prediction model' and 'grey relation method' to forecast the quantities of tourists, to evaluate the influential factors of tourists' quantities. So this research will be useful in the management of Kenting National Park.