國人於台灣及國外地區觀光旅遊需求之研究

A Research of Taiwanese Tourism Demand within Taiwan and Aboard

陳宛君(Wan-Jiun Chen) ； 鍾宜陵(Yi-Ling Chung)

《戶外遊憩研究》 22卷2期 (2009/06) Pp. 1-26

https://doi.org/10.6130/JORS.2009.22(2)1

摘要

本文採用近似理想需求體系模型，分析1999至2006年間國人於國內外8個地區觀光旅遊需求。發現國人旅遊選擇以國內爲主（佔國內外旅遊人次之94.1%，旅遊總支出之44.7%），國人對國內旅遊價格變動的反應較不敏感，自我價格彈性爲缺乏彈性。同時，國內旅遊交叉彈性，並沒有具顯著性負值者，證實國內旅遊欠缺有效替代品，即便國外旅遊自1980年開放迄今已頗具規模，仍無法取代國內旅遊，顯示國人國內遊憩需求殷切，也證實國人國內旅遊確實具有成長空間，台灣休閒遊憩產業確實具有廣大商機。其次，本研究證實國人國內外不同地區之觀光旅遊有其各別之淡旺季、SARS疫情明顯衝擊國人亞洲及美洲旅遊、911恐怖攻擊事件確實對國人赴美洲觀光旅遊造成影響、台灣921大地震與南亞海嘯兩個天災並未造成國人觀光旅遊上明顯衝擊。再者，東北亞地區旅遊價格調整會造成國人至該地旅遊需求量大幅變化（自我價格彈性爲富有彈性）；與東北亞有成對替代性關係的地區包括大陸港澳、東南亞、歐洲；與台灣地區互爲互補關係的地區有大陸港澳、東北亞；與大陸港澳互爲互補關係的地區有台灣、東南亞、美洲、歐洲。

關鍵字

近似理想需求體系 ； 需求彈性 ； 衝擊

並列摘要

As income increased and living standard improved, Taiwanese now are willing to spend more time on tourism with higher budget. In order to thoroughly shed an overlook light on Taiwanese travel demand, this study completely covered, domestically and outbound, Taiwanese tourism demands for 8 destination areas to an Almost Ideal Demand System model. Taiwan domestic tourism was the primary choice of Taiwanese (94.1%) among the 8 destination areas. The importance of domestic tourism was evidenced by empirical results of lacking effective substitutes. Domestic tourism was own-price inelastic and expenditure elastic (greater than unity). Taiwanese tourism was approved to be normal goods by evidences of significant positive signs of expenditure elasticities across all 8 study areas. In addition, empirical results suggested that winter break and summer break were peaks or bottoms for different travel destination areas. SARS epidemic had made great impacts on Taiwanese tourism for traveling to Asia and Americas. The 911 terrorist attacks had significant impacts on Taiwanese tourism expenditure share to Americas, certainly including American. However, South Asia tsunami and Taiwan's 921 earth quake had no significant impact on Taiwanese tourism choices. Moreover, the demand of Northeast Asia is price elastic. Paired complementary effects existed between domestic tourism and that of the areas of Mainland China and Northeast Asia. Demand of tourism to Mainland China was paired complements with that for areas of Taiwan, Southeast Asia, Americas and Europe. Substitution effects significantly existed in the following paired areas: Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, Northeast Asia and Mainland China, and Europe and Northeast Asia.

並列關鍵字

Almost ideal demand system ； demand elasticity ； impacts

參考文獻

王金利(1994)。台灣家戶福利水準之研究－民國65到79年家庭收支調查樣本戶資料的計量分析。經濟研究。32(1)，19-47。

王金利、林國榮(1998)。台灣社會福利水準與不均度之研究。經濟研究。35(1)，61-81。

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