中國大陸－東協經貿關係的開展與限制：經濟外交觀點的評析

Conducting Economic Diplomacy-The Aspects and Challenges of China-ASEAN Economic Cooperation

呂冠頤(Guanyi Leu)

《東亞研究》 49卷1期 (2018/07) Pp. 13-62

https://doi.org/10.30402/EAS.201807_49(1).0002

摘要

中國大陸與東協國家間經貿關係增長快速，除彼此均有因應內部發展擴展市場的需求，也有以強化經濟穩定政治關係的戰略動機，而中國大陸積極的經濟外交作為更是主要的推動力。綜觀中國大陸對東南亞國家經貿關係的發展有以下特色：以「經濟外交」為引，維護「經濟安全」為主、「以經促政」為過程、拓展「戰略安全」為目標。中國大陸對東協國家的經貿外交戰略可約略歸諸於以下層面：經貿投資外交重區域多邊協議的推動、順應「東協＋x」的「東協中心性」模式，在金融援建外交上，傾以具單邊主導性的倡議，分別與一或數個東協國家進行投資或基建設施的合作。除了正向性經貿的合作，經濟制裁也可能成為中國大陸開展對外關係的手段措施。分析東協國家與中國大陸加大經濟合作的過程中，面對中國大陸經濟量體的擴張、對中經濟依賴、及中國大陸施以經濟壓力以促政經標的可能性的攀升，使東南亞國家內部團體、政策精英慮疑對政治、經濟安全甚至主權的負面影響，遂有如下因應措施。一是東協國家內部對中經濟關係的增幅擴大，仍持謹慎態度或甚有檢討聲浪，二是其經貿投資策略，依然持續其「多元化開放」、同步強化「東協中心性」的策略，避免經貿關係過度集中依賴產生外溢性。這也使中國大陸經濟外交在「以政促經」、「以經促政」的開展受到限制，在經貿外交、金融信貸、基建外交等區域或雙邊層次的推進，面臨一定的挑戰。觀諸中國大陸與東協國家經濟關係發展的變動，經濟外交、經濟安全的理論概念有助理解雙方經貿的開展與限制之處。

關鍵字

經濟外交 ； 經濟安全 ； 中國大陸對外關係 ； 東南亞國協 ； 自貿協議 ； 一帶一路

並列摘要

Economic relations between China and Southeast Nations have greatly expanded due to several factors. In addition to a mutual desire to expand markets, there has also been a strategic motive to stabilize political relations. China's activism conducting economic diplomacy and statecraft with its adjacent countries has been a primary impetus, aiming to improve its political and economic security. The aspects of China's economic diplomacy with Southeast Asia include a reliance on multilateralism, more on the basis of the ＂ ASEAN plus X＂ model, to promote trade-related cooperation. Furthermore, China prefers bilateral and unilateral channels to conduct finance-driven investment and construction cooperation. In some instances, China has also resorted to economic sanctions and unilateral pressure over its neighboring countries. In assessing the political and economic effectiveness of China's multifaceted economic diplomacy in the area, the domestic and regional strategies pursued by many Southeast Asian countries have imposed challenges to China. Southeast Asian nations remain concerned about asymmetric economic dependence, which has led to domestic opposition, economic diversification, and multi-front cooperative policy schemes with other competing countries. This paper will apply the concepts of economic diplomacy and security to analyze the aspects and challenges facing China-Southeast Asian economic cooperation.

並列關鍵字

Economics diplomacy and statecraft ； economic security ； China-Southeast Asian relations ； ASEAN ； free trade agreements ； One Belt and One Road

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