近期兩岸關係中的美國因素

The US Factor in the Recent Development of the Cross-Straits Relations

于有慧(Yo-Huei Yu)

《中國大陸研究》 44卷8期 (2001/08) Pp. 1-21

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.200108_44(8).0001

摘要

分析兩岸問題已經不能完全由兩岸本身的角度解讀，它幾乎是不能與國際因素劃清界線的。在兩岸關係的國際因素當中，最複雜、也最重要的部分即美國所扮演的角色。美國與中共關係互動對於兩岸關係發展具有關鍵影響，根據結構平衡理論，當美中關係趨向緩和，兩岸關係亦趨向平穩發展；反之，當美中關係陷於緊張，兩岸關係即甚難有所突破。
在美中關係發展當中，美國對中共政策對於兩國關係發展無寧較具影響，主要原因在於當前中共是以發展為主軸，採取的是守勢外交。小布希新人新政，將中共視為未來主要的威脅來源，採取相對友好的對台政策並主張加強戰區防禦體系的建構，即追求絕對安全與單極化的做法，對中共構成相當大的安全威脅。惟儘管面對來自美國的嚴峻挑戰，中共仍低調回應，並無意與美國直接對抗。近日美國發生九一一恐怖主義攻擊事件，勢將衝擊美國未來的安全戰略布局，對於美中關係發展亦必將造成影響；在此情勢發展下，兩岸關係將受到何種牽引？甚值密切觀察。

關鍵字

美中關係 ； 兩岸關係 ； 美國的中國政策 ； 中共的美國政策

並列摘要

To analyze problems in cross-Straits relations, one cannot simply focus on bilateral relations themselves. International factors, especially the US factor, are important. According to the structural balance theory, when relations between the US and China improve, cross-Straits relations also become less confrontational. On the contrary, when relations between the US and China becomes tense, it is not easy to foresee a breakthrough in relations between China and Taiwan.
In terms of Sino-US relations, US policies toward China play a dominant role. This is because China places economic development as a top priority. Passive diplomacy is the theme. However, upon taking office this spring, George Bush seemed to have treated China as the major threat to the U.S. His relative friendly policies toward Taiwan and arguments for the buildup of a national missile defense system posed an elevated threat to China. Despite confronting dire security threats from the US, reactions from China seemed to be muted. China does not seem to be willing to confront the US at the current stage. The recent 911 incident has temporary thrown into disarray the overall US security strategy blueprint. This event will also shift future developments in the Sino-US relations.

並列關鍵字

Sino-US relations ； Cross-Straits relations ； Us China Policy ； China's Us Policy

參考文獻

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