大陸市場對於外人來台直接投資的影響評估

Mainland China's Economy and Foreign Direct Investments in Taiwan

吳重禮(Chung-Li Wu) ； 尤淑儀(Shu-I Yu)

《中國大陸研究》 45卷1期 (2002/01) Pp. 63-80

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.200201_45(1).0004

摘要

邇來，面臨中國大陸益形蓬勃的經貿發展，兩岸經濟情勢究竟是負面的彼此排擠關係或者是正面的雙方互補作用，已經成為國內眾所關切的議題。本研究以一九六五年至一九九九年為研究期間，評估影響外人來台直接投資的因素，藉以探究中國大陸經濟勢力的崛起，對於我國吸收外資所產生的效應。迴歸實證模型分析結果顯示，國內人力素質為影響外人來台投資的關鍵因素。我們推論，外國企業在篩選投資地區時，勞動品質為其重要考量因素之一；當教育程度愈高，象徵著勞動品質愈加提升，愈足以激發其強烈的投資動機。反觀，市場利率的變動幅度、不同階段的政府奨勵政策等變數，對於我國吸引外商進行投資的影響甚微。至於外國企業前往大陸進行投資是否會排擠對於台灣地區的投資，實證資料顯示，就目前趨勢看來，此一效果並不顯著。這種情形似乎意味著，截至現今，兩岸經濟發展階段與產業結構的不同，使得雙方產業並非存在著競爭關係，因此彼此吸納外資並不相互衝突。綜言之，為繼續吸引外國企業的投資，我國應持續地培養人力資源，提供優秀人力，並且改善國內投資環境，以期藉由外資的投入，刺激國內低迷的景氣，帶動經濟繁榮發展。

關鍵字

兩岸經貿 ； 外人直接投資 ； 利率 ； 政治經濟

並列摘要

With the burgeoning of Mainland China's economic performance during the past decade, the economic interactions between China and Taiwan have become one of the major concerns in Taiwan. We employ data from 1965-1999 to examine the determinants of foreign direct investment in Taiwan, and attempt to analyze the effects of China's economy on foreign investment in Taiwan. Regression model results show that Taiwan's labor quality is an important incentive for foreign investors. We hold that labor quality is one the major concerns of foreign businesses when selecting investment countries. On the contrary, factors such as interest rates and government encouragement policies have only miner impact on foreign investment in Taiwan. In addition, the crowding-out effect of China-Taiwan foreign investment is not statistically significant. This might imply that, because of the differences in economic development and industrial structure, Taiwan's and China's economies are not competitive in absorbing foreign investment. We conclude that Taiwan's government should keep on the path of cultivating human resources, providing qualified labor-force, and improving domestic investment environment-all important considerations for foreign businesses.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan-manland economic interactions ； foreign direct investment ； interest rate ； political economy

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