中共「十六大」後對台政策分析

The Taiwan Policy of the Chinese Communist Party after Its 16th National Congress

童振源(Chen-Yuan Tung)

《中國大陸研究》 46卷2期 (2003/03) Pp. 41-55

摘要

本文分析中共在「十六大」之後的對台政策。大陸目前對台政策的主軸是以「經濟發展」為中心，不希望台灣問題耽擱、破壞大陸經濟發展的進程；同時，大陸以「穩定中美關係」與「做台灣人民工作」為現階段大陸對台政策的兩個基本點。在短期間，兩岸對峙的局勢會持續下去；「台灣公民投票（台獨）可能性」與「大陸武力嚇阻台獨（公民投票）」的兩股力量會繼續維持兩岸關係僵持的張力。但是，「三通」將會成為兩岸在短中期內互動與協商的焦點，有可能是改善兩岸關係互動的觸媒與機制。

關鍵字

中共「十六大」 ； 中共對台政策 ； 「一個中國」原則 ； 三通

並列摘要

This paper analyzes the Taiwan policy of the Chinese Communist Party after its 1 6th National Congress . The main theme of the Mainland,5 current Taiwan policy centers on ” economic development,”with a hope thatthe Taiwan issue should not delay or undermine the progress of the Mainland , s economic development . At the same time,the Mainland has two basic pillars on its current Taiwan policy :”stabilizing Sino 一 US relations ” and ” appealling to the Taiwanese public . ” In the short run , the stalemate of cross 一 Strait relations will continue ; the possibility ofaplebisciteonTaiwan , sindependence and the Mainland , 5 military threats to deter Taiwan independence ( plebiscite ) are two forces that sustain the tension across the Taiwan Strait . Nevertheless , the ” three links ” issue will be the focus ofbilateral interaction and negotiation in the short term and could be the catalyst and mechanism to improve cross - Strait relations .

並列關鍵字

The 16th National Congress ofthe Chinese Communist Party ； the Taiwan policy of the Chinese Communist Party ； the one China principle ； three links

參考文獻

Clough, R. N.(1999).Cooperation or Conflict in the Taiwan Strait?.Lanham, Md.:Rowman ＆ Littlefield.

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邵宗海 Shaw, Chong-Hai(1998)。兩岸關係：兩岸共識與兩岸歧見。台北:五南圖書出版公司。

童振源 Tung, Chen-Yuan(2002)。胡錦濤時代的挑戰。台北:新新聞文化事業公司。

童振源 Tung, Chen-Yuan(2002).China's Economic Leverage and Taiwan's Security Concerns with Respect to Cross-Strait Economic Relations.Johns Hopkins University.