展望賽局理論決策模式應用於競標決策之研究

Using Prospect Game Theory Decision Model in Biddng Decision

鄭明淵(Min-Yuan Cheng) ； 項家騏(Chia-Chi Hsiang)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 25卷2期 (2013/06) Pp. 99-109

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.201306_25(2).0002

摘要

投標決策的正確與否為影響營造廠營運績效最重要的關鍵。工程常採公開方式招標並以最低價格標作為決標依據，廠商對投標價格之決定，受到決策者對工程之不確定風險因素及競爭者之風險偏好行為的主觀認知影響。本研究結合累積展望理論（cumulative prospect theory）及賽局理論（game theory），創新建立一可同時考量競爭者的風險偏好及多競爭者行為決策之「展望賽局理論決策模式」（Prospect Game Theory Decision Model，PGT Decision Model）以協助營造廠在競標時擬定最適競標策略與投標價格。最後以一案例驗證本模式應用之可行性。

關鍵字

累積展望理論 ； 賽局理論 ； 模糊評分 ； 模糊偏好關係

並列摘要

Biding strategy has a significant influence on the running of a construction firm. The biding of ordinary construction project uses open bid and takes the lowest price as the winner. Usually, the biding price is decided by the managing director, whom depends on his own knowledge of the uncertain risks of the project and the influence of the risky behavior of the opposing firms. This research based on the combination of the cumulative prospect theory and game theory to create a new decision model named Prospect Game Theory Decision Model (PGT Decision Model), with that can help the construction firm to make the most favorable bidding strategy and optima biding price. Fallows empirical case is also included to illustrate the proposed model.

並列關鍵字

cumulative prospect theory ； game theory ； fuzzy rating ； fuzzy preference relations