開放式洪水預報與決策資訊整合平台之應用

本研究針對流域水情多重模式測預報平台進行研發，在平台上整合多組降雨逕流模式及河口潮位模式，並結合氣象局之降雨預報與流域觀測水情資料，可於颱洪期間即時預測未來三小時的河川水位，且基於多重模式同時模擬，本平台可一次模擬獲得四組河川水位的預測結果。此外，本研究提出一動態權重分配的水位系集預測方法，能有效提升水位系集預測的精度。本研究以辛樂克颱風於淡水河流域之洪水預報為例，進行多模式之模擬驗證以及系集預測分析探討。由於本平台可承載單一功能多模式之運算特色，已具如颱風系集預報水準，為水利實務單位提供洪水預報之發展空間。此外，為提升防災人員於災害即時應變與決策能力，本多模式水情測預報平台可即時與水情影像監測網、多人多點溝通視訊平台以及3D地理資訊展示系統多工使用，使決策人員於第一時間獲取防災系統完整資訊。

關鍵字

洪水預報；多模式整合模擬；開放式洪水預警平台；防災決策資訊

並列摘要

This paper is aimed at the development and implementation of an ensemble flood forecasting system in Taiwan. This system features providing the ensemble flood forecasts with 3-hour lead time in a near real-time manner. Four sets of flood forecasts can be obtained at once for the ensemble analysis. A weighting method for ensemble average is proposed to improve the accuracy of the forecasting water levels in this study. The flood event caused by Typhoon Sinlaku in Tamsui River basin is taken as an illustrated example. Due to the flash flood characteristics, the ensemble forecast with 3-hour lead time does provide the officials more responding time for flood hazard mitigation. On the other hand, in order to help the authorities using decision support systems (DSS) effectively, a human-centered, open and virtually integrated platform for the use of heterogeneous DSSs is proposed. Via this virtual platform, the officials, experts and scholars at different locations can easily share their DDSs' information and communicate and discuss immediately. Finally, an application example associated with a flood event has been carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed system and platform. The result shows that the real-time monitoring, the water-level forecasting, and the spatial geographic information are very crucial and can be obtained immediately in this application. Therefore, the potential usefulness and benefit of the systems and platforms has been recognized.

並列關鍵字

flood forecast ； open platform ； FEWS_Taiwan ； disaster decision support information

國際替代計量

開放式洪水預報與決策資訊整合平台之應用

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