七七事變之後國民政府走向對日決戰的時局判斷

本文利用近年公開的檔案與日記資料，以1937年7月7日盧溝橋事變爆發到該年11月24日九國公約會議的結束為主軸，探討國民政府面對日本在華軍事活動的反應、中國政府向國際聯盟提出申訴的主張，以及九國公約會議召開等一連串活動。在此過程中，蔣中正考慮對日宣戰問題，隨著戰局進退、國內合作和國外援助等各方面成績的演變，與汪兆銘、孔祥熙、宋子文等國府高層人士共同商討，由應戰而走向決戰之路。蔣中正認為，7月27日日軍進攻北平，顯示中日大戰已經無可避免，8月9日上海虹橋機場衝突事件，更是日軍擴大在華戰事的指標。蔣中正為應付日本軍事進逼，進行聯俄交涉，於8月21日簽訂「中蘇互不侵犯條約」，獲得蘇俄的軍火援濟，國際局勢再度巨變。面對日本軍方在8月25日及9月5日兩次宣告對華封鎖的行動，中國於8月30日向國際聯盟提出聲明書，主張日本自盧溝橋事變至淞滬戰役的軍事活動，完全不尊重中國主權獨立與領土完整，已是武裝侵略行動，隨後更在9月13日向國際聯盟提出保全領土申訴案。11月3日，九國公約會議開幕。蔣中正判斷日本將拒絕參加九國公約會議，形勢對中國有利，因此在11月15日召開的國防最高會議常務會議上表明堅定抗戰的決心，決定遷都日期、首都防守計畫和發動游擊戰的全般作戰方略。11月24日，九國公約會議正式表決大會宣言和決議，要求中日雙方停止戰爭，但國際調停無望，令蔣中正的持久戰策略得到開展的契機。九國公約會議結束之後，雖有德使陶德曼調停中日戰事的行動，因日本堅持中國放棄容共抗日，勢必去蔣，協商不順。至1938年1月16日，日本宣布「不以國民政府為交涉對手」，國際調停之途正式中斷。蔣中正在華北戰事爆發之後，接受了主和派者如汪兆銘認為聯俄將使中國共產黨獲得擴張的意見，而且在進行聯俄行動之時，也極力爭取西方列強的同情與協助。另一方面，備受中外批評的九國公約會議，在其軟弱無力的宣言中，將日本的軍事行動定位為戰爭行為，中國政府也以遷都的實際行動表明對日本長期抗戰的決心，這兩項歷史事實，終結了中日兩國之間自盧溝橋事變以來5個多月的準戰爭狀態，也為日後的戰爭責任問題預留伏筆。

關鍵字

抗戰；九國公約會議；蔣中正；汪兆銘

並列摘要

This paper aims to explore the Nationalist government's reactions to Japanese military actions in China, focusing on the process from the Marco Polo Bridge Incident on July 7, 1937 to the Nine Powers Agreement Convention held on November 24, 1937. The author also explores the Chinese government's proposal to the international alliance by using latest discovery of archives and diaries of Chiang Kai-shek, Wang Shih-chieh and Hsu Yung-chang. Briefly speaking, Chiang Kai-shek’s declaration of war on Japan was made on multiple conditions including war preparations including the battle already fought, domestic cooperation and international assistance achieved, while simultaneous negotiations with some high ranking officials such as Wang Ching-wei, H. H. Kung, and T. V. Soong concluded. As the war against Japan already broke out in northern China, Chiang Kaishek deemed that an all-out war was inevitable while Wang Ching-wei believed that the ally between the Nationalist Government and Russia would strengthen the CCP. Chiang accepted Wang’s such opinion, therefore, he established an alliance with Russia and simultaneously also sought sympathy and assistance from major Western Powers like the United Kingdom and America. In addition, the Nine Powers Agreement Convention, held in Brussels on November 3, 1937 and concluded on November 24, vaguely declared that Japanese military action was a war on and to China. The Nationalist government thus withdrew its capital from Nanking to Chungching on November 20, 1937, showing its determination of long resistance to Japan in battle. Both situations, the move of Capital and the Nine Powers Agreement Convention clearly ended the five-month ＂quasi-war＂ situation after the Marco Polo Bridge Incident, and defined the beginning of the Sino-Japanese War and projected various hints foreshadowing issues to be found in later developments in China’s wartime responsibilities and ever changing international situations.