考慮不確實性下的輔助住宅資產決策形成之邊界生命週期成本分析方法

生命週期成本分析方法對住宅資產管理是有效的應用工具，但由於對不確實性之討論較少，仍未被個人使用者普遍利用。緣此，本研究之目的在於：提出能將不確實性定量化的生命週期成本計算模型，並藉此輔助那些面對住宅改修等資產管理問題的決策者作出投資判斷。在既有分析方法的基礎上，本研究應用二項機率分配，將生命週期成本計算中存在的不確實因素，設定為隨時間變動之參數將其定量化；透過住宅節能改修的案例操作，模擬計算、比較在三種不確實性的情境假設下，替代方案呈現出不同的費用對效果以及可能風險，藉此驗證提案方法的有效性。其分析結果顯示：既有方法僅以「期待值」單一數值來評估替代方案，難以判斷是否滿足決策者之風險承擔屬性；但本方法的計算結果提供了「可能的分布範圍」與「發生機率」做為參考，對屬性不同決策者來說，能更容易地判斷替代方案的效益是否滿足自身的期待效用，較具有參考價值。最後，建議後續研究可持續應用本研究提案模型，探討其他尚未參數化的不確實性因素，以增進生命週期成本分析方法的實用性。

關鍵字

不確實性；機率過程；邊界生命週期成本分析；決策形成；期待效用

並列摘要

Although LCC analysis is an effective tool to estimate housing's LCC present value, it is not prevalent among personal users due to the lack of discussion about the fluctuating parameter and uncertainty. This research proposed a LCC appraisal model which attempts to quantify uncertain factors with different levels by applying binomial distribution, in order to support user who is facing the decision making issues relating to housing property investment. Differing from existing methods which evaluates the alternative only by ＂LCC mean value＂, this research furthermore considered uncertain factors as fluctuant values to grasp ＂the possible range＂ and ＂probability＂. Case study result shows that the return on investment and risk estimation of the alternative are quite different under three uncertainty hypothetical situations. By referring the analysis result of proposed method, decision makers with different risk appetites can easily estimate whether the alternative fits with their own expected utility or not. Finally, it is suggested that other uncertain factors relating to LCC calculation should be clarified in future research.