Modeling Product Diffusion by System Dynamics Approach

利用系統動態模式化產品擴散

陳偉星(Wei-Shing Chen) ； 陳國輔(Kuo-Fu Chen)

《工業工程學刊》 24卷5期 (2007/09) Pp. 397-413

https://doi.org/10.29977/JCIIE.200709.0007

摘要

在需求管理中需求預測是一項相當重要的事前工作，而擴散模式被用來預測新產品在未來的需求已行之多年且有相當不錯的成效。原有Bass擴散模式是以創新係數與模仿係數為基礎來建構新產品擴散迴歸分析模式，R-L模式加入了價格因子，而Generalized Bass Model則是再考慮產品價格與廣告費用於模式中，用以更務實的分析產品擴散能力，本研究利用擅長處理動態複雜系統並以回饋控制理論為基礎的系統動態學做為建構新產品擴散模式之工具，除考慮原有創新係數、模仿係數、產品價格與廣告費用之外，再考慮另一重要因素－品牌效應來建構一個完整的新產品擴散模式，經由實際資料驗證，利用系統動態學建立本研究所提出之新擴散模式在模式的合適性及預測所得到的效果會比BM、R-L模式和GBM來得正確。

關鍵字

Bass擴散模式 ； 系統動態學 ； 產品需求預測

並列摘要

Demand forecasting plays an important role in demand management, and product diffusion model had been used to forecast the demand of new products for several years. Bass diffusion model describes the empirical adoption curve by using two important factors, namely, the coefficients of innovation and imitation. In 1975, R-L model incorporated the ”price” decision variable into diffusion model. A generalized Bass model incorporated price and advertising policies into the original Bass model to analyze empirical new product diffusion process. In this research a system dynamics diffusion model was constructed to model the dynamical diffusion process of a new product. In addition to the four factors, the effect of product brand was added into the system dynamics model. The model was tested and results revealed that the prediction capability of the proposed system dynamics model is better than those of Bass diffusion model, R-L model and generalized Bass model.

並列關鍵字

Bass diffusion model ； system dynamics ； product-demand forecasting

參考文獻

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