Spatial Variation of Fractal Parameters and Its Geological Implications

碎形參數之空間變異及其地質意義

宋國城(Q. C. Sung) ； 陳彥杰(Y. C. Chen) ； 趙培文(P. C. Chao)

《Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences》 9卷4期 (1998/12) Pp. 655-672

並列摘要

In order to assess the climatic impacts of increasing greenhouse gasconcentrations in the atmosphere on the Indian subcontinent with a fairdegree of confidence,we recently undertook an intercomparison study of arange of general circulation modelling experiments for which the data wereavailable to us.This study(Lal et al.,1998)reported our findings on theperformance of each of the 17 global climate model experiments in simulatingthe present-day regional climatology over the Indian subcontinent.Theanalysis suggested that a few global climate models performed exception-ally well in their control simulation to represent the observed present-dayclimatological patterns over the region of interest.In this paper,we focuson the development of plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinentbased on selected model simulations with enhanced greenhousegas forcings.Our analysis suggests that,for a 1℃ rise in mean annual global temperature,the seasonal surface air temperature increase over the Indiansubcontinent is likely to range from 0.7℃ to 1.1℃ during winter and 0.6℃to 1.0℃ during summer.The increase in summer precipitation associatedwith the projected scaled rise in surface temperature could be between 1.2%to 4.5%.The model results do not suggest any significant change in thewinter precipitation over the region.Taking into account the suggested range of climate sensitivity as wellas the range of future greenhouse gas-induced global warming in selectedgeneral circulation model experiments,a plausible climate change scenariofor the Indian subcontinent is developed for the years 2030 and 2070.A risein mean winter surface air temperature of between 0.4℃ to 1.7℃ by theyear 2030 and between 0.7℃ to 3.4℃ by the year 2070 is projected.Duringthe summer season,the temperature rise is expected to range between 0.3℃to 1.4℃ by the year 2030 and 0.6℃ to 3.1℃ by the year 2070.The studysuggests intense spells of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinentdue to enhanced convective activity in a warmer atmosphere.

並列關鍵字

Fractal Dimension ； Spatial Variation ； Geological Implication