- 期刊
The Boy Who Cried Wolf: North Korea's Nuclear Tests and Their Implications for Regional Stability
狼來了：北韓核試爆以及其對區域安全的影響
摘要
The threat of nuclear war hung ominously over the world throughout much of the 20th century. Now, nearly two decades into the 21st century, we find ourselves in a situation where most countries have already denounced the potential use of nuclear weapons and have halted the rampant development of such arms. One country, however, has appeared eager to produce nuclear weapons as well as to actually use them. Since 2006, North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests. The most recent one, in September 2017, signaled that the country's military had gained the capability to send an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a bomb 10 times stronger than the one dropped on Hiroshima not only to Seoul and Tokyo, but as far as Guam, Hawaii, Alaska, and possibly even the West Coast of the United States. This research paper asks three key questions: Why did North Korea seek so desperately to develop a nuclear weapon? How has the world coped with North Korea becoming the ninth nuclear power? And what will North Korea do next? After policy and historical analysis, this paper argues that North Korea is not the boy who cried wolf and, rather, that there was never any wolf to begin with-that North Korea has never intended to launch a nuclear attack. The country sought nuclear arms to secure its sovereignty and, in 2017, it finally succeeded. From here, the regime and the country will step forward into another phase of economic development; the boy will one day become an adult.
並列摘要
國際政治在二十世紀後半壟罩於美蘇核子戰爭的威脅之下。冷戰結束之後，二十一世紀到來，當大部分國家公開否定使用核子武器的可能性以及停止擴大發展相關項目之際，北韓卻急切的發展核子武器並且重複的表達使用核子武器的意願。從2006到2017，北韓已經執行了六次核子武器試爆。最新的數據顯示，平壤可以投射其十倍於廣島原爆的洲際導彈於首爾、東京、關島、夏威夷，甚至抵達美國本土的西岸地區。本研究試圖回答，為何北韓急切於發展核武？世界各國如何處理第九擁核國，北韓？北韓接下來會如何處理與各國關係？經過政策與歷史分析之後，本文申論，北韓並非欺騙哭喊狼來了的男孩，北韓並沒有計畫要使用核武。正如歷史上擁有核武的國家都是出於自我防衛，北韓多年來的核計畫也是為了自身的國家安全。2017年北韓成功發展出核武，下一步北韓將逐漸正常化，男孩會逐漸成長為大人。
參考文獻
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