A Human Reliability Analysis Method for Offshore Operation

Yan-Fu Wang ； Biao Li ； Jun-Cheng Jiang ； Jiu-Qiang Sang

《International Journal of Information and Management Sciences》 29卷4期 (2018/12) Pp. 403-414

https://doi.org/10.6186/IJIMS.201812_29(4).0004

摘要

In order to increase the accuracy of human reliability analysis for offshore operation, a quantitative analysis model is proposed based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) in this paper. Firstly, the common performance conditions (CPC) of CREAM are classified systematically according to the characteristics of offshore environment. Secondly, the relationship between CPC score and control modes is determined by using the BP neural network to improve the veracity of CREAM. Thirdly, the neural network model of the human reliability for offshore operation is proposed. Fourthly, the human error probability is calculated according to the revised formula. Finally, a case study is demonstrated to validate the feasibility of this method.

關鍵字

Human reliability analysis ； cream ； offshore operation ； neural network

參考文獻

Akyuz, E. (2015). Quantification of human error probability towards the gas inerting process on-board crude oil tankers, Safety Science, Vol.80, 77-86.

Akyuz, E. and Celik, M. (2015). A methodological extension to human reliability analysis for cargo tank cleaning operation on board chemical tanker ships, Saf. Sci., Vol.75, 146-155.

Akyuz, E. and Celik, M. (2015). Application of CREAM human reliability model to cargo loading process of LPG tankers, Loss Prev. Process Ind. Vol.34, 39-48.

Calhoun, J., Savoie, C., Randolph-Gips, M. and Bozkurt, I. (2014). Human reliability analysis in spaceflight applications, Part 2: Modified CREAM for spaceflight, Qual, Reliab. Eng. Int. Vol.30, 3-12.

Chai, S., Yu, J. X. and Ma, W. L. (2012). A human reliability analysis method based on cream and uncertain reasoning, Journal of Tianjin University: Natural Sciences and Engineering Technology, Vol.45, 958-962.