不確定營收下實質選擇權法在高雄捷運BOT模式之應用

Application of BOT Model for Kaohsiung MRT Project Using Real Options with Income Uncertainty

林達榮(Tyrone T. Lin) ； 柯娟娟(Chuan-Chuan Ko)

《運輸計劃季刊》 32卷1期 (2003/03) Pp. 151-175

https://doi.org/10.6402/TPJ.200303.0151

摘要

本文擬採用實質選擇權法說明，在「財務性效益評估」之前提下，針對高雄捷運BOT工程之規劃、營建、營運階段進行專案決策評估與管理分析，建構BOT模式下最適投資門檻值、及最佳完工時點，並說明實質選擇權法與傳統淨現值法之異同，提出權利金分配策略做為政府及業者於BOT模式之策略評估參考。本文研究結果顯示，運用實質選擇權法在不確定營收狀況下，其與一般傳統淨現值法無法隨動態營收環境變化而彈性調整其投資與經營策略所產生之差異為專案策略現值之所在。

關鍵字

BOT模式 ； 決策評估 ； 實質選擇權

並列摘要

This paper utilizes the real options approach to evaluate the project value of the BUT (Built-Operate-Transfer) model for Kaohsiung MRT project under income uncertainty. The BUT project is categorized into the programming, building, and operating stages, according to different risks of incomes. The model uses financial benefit evaluation to provide reference data on optimal capital investment threshold and optimum timing for completing construction for the decision makers. The strategic present value can be found from strategic net present value with flexible value subtracted by net present value with a non-flexible value. This study also aims to compare ROA with net present value method and to provide suggestions in premium distribution from operating earnings for strategic managers.

並列關鍵字

Decision analysis ； BOT model ； Real options approach

參考文獻

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