應用存活分析法於機車紅燈怠速熄火行為之研究

Modelling Motorcyclists' Behavior of Idling Stop on Red Light Using Survival Analysis

吳健生(Jiann-Sheng Wu) ； 蕭羽媛(Yu-Yuan Hsiao) ； 蘇殷甲(Yin-Chia Su)

《運輸計劃季刊》 40卷2期 (2011/06) Pp. 161-183

https://doi.org/10.6402/TPJ.201106.0161

摘要

針對全球暖化及節能減碳議題，本研究透過問卷方式調查機車騎士紅燈怠速熄火行為之意願及其影響因素，並利用存活分析法中之Cox等比例危險模式，構建兩者之關係。研究結果顯示，全球暖化認知、紅燈怠速熄火降低污染意願、執法規範信念、熄火依從信念、年齡及家庭人數等6個變數，會顯著影響機車騎士紅燈怠速熄火之意願。整體而言，解釋變數與相對風險呈正向走勢。對環境認知或認同感愈強烈者，其相對風險亦愈高，亦即紅燈怠速熄火之意願亦愈高。然就年齡變數而言，每增長l歲，相對風險卻降低l%，顯示年紀愈輕，反而愈具有環保意識，愈能接受怠速熄火節能減碳之觀念。經進一步分析發現，若能提升大眾的環境認知，則全體機車騎士當中將會增加2.545%至14.618%願意配合紅燈怠速時熄火。

關鍵字

節能減碳 ； 怠速熄火 ； 存活分析法 ； Cox等比例危險模式 ； 相對風險

並列摘要

Aiming at the issues of global warming as well as energy saving and carbon reduction, we, in this study, investigate motorcyclists' will to turn off the engine at a red light, and its influence factors by means of a questionnaire. Using the Cox proportional hazard model in survival analysis, we further modeled the relationship between them. The result shows that motorcyclists' behavior of not idling at a red light is significantly influenced by six variables: global warming awareness, willingness to reduce air pollution by not idling, belief of ruling a non-idling stop by enforcement, belief of not idling by following other motorcyclists, age, and family population. As a whole, there appears to be a positive trend between relative risk and variables. The stronger the recognition of the environment, the higher the relative risk is, i.e. the higher the will to turn off the engine at a red light is. Nevertheless, the relative risk decreases by 1% as the age increases by 1 year. It depicts that the younger the motorcyclist is, the more he will accept the concept of not idling to save energy and reduce carbon. After further investigation, we find that the will to not idle will totally increase from 2.545% to 14.618%, if the recognition of environment can be escalated.

並列關鍵字

Energy saving and carbon reduction ； Idling stop ； Survival analysis ； Cox proportional hazard model ； Relative risk

參考文獻

中華民國交通部官方網頁，「交通統計，主要國家交通統計比較」，http://www.motc.gov.tw/mocwebGIP/wSite/ct?xItem=4881&ctNode=169&mp=1，民國98年。

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