住宅個案價格分散之研究：房價水準、景氣時機與區位條件之分析

Price Dispersion of New Housing Projects: Analysis of Price Level, Timing and Location

許淑媛(Shu-Yuan Hsu) ； 袁淑湄(Shu-Mei Yuan) ； 張金鶚(Chin-Oh Chang)

《都市與計劃》 38卷4期 (2011/12) Pp. 403-426

https://doi.org/10.6128/CP.38.4.403

摘要

過去住宅價格的研究多以平均數作為主軸，較少探討價格分散（price dispersion）的現象。然而，當市場上價格分散程度增加，以平均數來描述市場價格，其所代表的經濟意義將變得不若價格變異程度來得重要。因為房價分散反映出報酬率的風險，當房價分散程度愈高，報酬率的風險愈高，雖然風險的偏好因人而異，但每個人對於風險承受能力都有極限，因此建商和消費者更關心的是他們是否能承擔因房價分散所導致的報酬風險，而非僅平均房價水準為何。本文釐清價格分散與房價水準的關係，以及價格分散的影響原因。實證結果顯示，在預售住宅市場中，當房價水準上升時，價格分散將增加，且房價水準領先價格分散三季；當住宅個案推出時間在不景氣時期，或推案區位在較差地區，都將使得價格分散增加。此實證結果隱含，當建商面對不同推案時機、區位時，其推案策略和訂價策略也將不同，而市場的參與者，應對所處的市場風險有更多瞭解。

關鍵字

價格分散 ； 向量自我迴歸模型 ； 衝擊反應函數

並列摘要

An extensive housing price literature exists that focuses on mean housing prices rather than price dispersion. However, given increased variation in housing prices, the economic meaning of the average price level becomes less important than price dispersion. Since price dispersion reflects the risk of the return rate, the risk of the return rate increases with the degree of price dispersion. Risk preferences differ among individuals, and everyone has their own limit of risk tolerance. Therefore, developers and consumers are more concerned with whether the return rate risk is becoming intolerably high, rather than simply caring about the housing prices. This study attempts to clarify the relationship between price dispersion and price level and the factors that contribute to price dispersion in the market. The empirical results show that as prices increase, so too does price dispersion. Moreover, price level is a leading indicator of dispersion with a three-season lead time. This study also finds that housing projects promoted in periods of depression period or situated in worse locations tend to increase price dispersion. The empirical results imply that developer promotion and pricing strategies change with timing and location. Participants in the new housing market should be aware of the risks to which they are exposed.

並列關鍵字

Price dispersion ； VAR model ； Impulse response function

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