二氧化碳減量成本與策略：臺灣參與國際排放交易制度與密集度減量模式之意涵

A Study of Cost and Strategy of CO2 Abatement for Taiwan: The Implications of Participation in IET and Intensity Target

李叢禎(Tsung-Chen Lee) ； 曾瓊瑤(Chiung-Yao Tseng) ； 李堅明(Chien-Ming Lee)

《經濟研究》 41卷2期 (2005/07) Pp. 155-189

摘要

本研究針對1998年全國能源會議結論之總量減量模式與美國提出之密集度減量模式進行九種不同情境模擬，探討總量減量模式配搭國際排放交易及密集度減量模式下，國際排放交易參與國不同時，對臺灣總體經濟、遵循成本(compliance cost)、能源結構與碳密集度的影響，並據此評析我國因應溫室氣體減量之策略。本研究結果發現：(1)在臺灣單獨減量時，採行總量減量模式之實質GDP損失與平均減量成本，均較密集度減量模式為高；(2)臺灣採行總量減量模式、並參與國際排放交易時，實質GDP損失與平均遵循成本較碳密集度模式下為低，尤其在全球參與排放交易時，臺灣遵循成本更是顯著下降，凸顯總量管制搭配國際交易制度與全球合作抑制溫室氣體排放的成本有效性特色；(3)不論臺灣採行何種模式作為減量承諾指標，碳密集度、平均碳排放係數與能源密集度均有改善，表示減量將使國內產業朝向使用低碳之潔淨能源，同時能源效率亦會提升；(4)不同減量目標之設定，是造成平均成本差異性的關鍵因素。本研究結果顯示，在總量減量模式情境下，宜積極爭取參與國際合作共同減量之契機，雖囿於我國國際政治地位特殊，然成功加入WTO的經驗，或可供為參考；若短期內我國無法參與國際合作機制，則宜積極爭取密集度減量模式作為減量承諾之指標，並與持相同立場的國家結盟，透過集團力量形成引起國際重視的主流模式。

關鍵字

二氧化碳減量 ； 減量成本 ； 減量策略 ； 國際排放交易 ； 減量模式

並列摘要

The goal of this paper is to explore the cost and strategy of GHG abatement for Taiwan. Based on the conclusion of the total quantity control target drawn from the 1998 national energy conference and the carbon intensity target proposed by the Bush Administration, nine scenarios are simulated to examine the implications of participation in international emission trading and the carbon intensity target on Taiwan's macro-economy, average compliance cost, energy structure, and carbon intensity. The insights which emerge from this paper are summarized as follows: (1) Under the scenarios of domestic abatement in Taiwan, the GDP loss and the average compliance cost of the total quantity control target are higher than those of carbon intensity target; (2) With the participation in international emission trading, the GDP loss and the average compliance cost of the total quantity control target are, on the contrary, lower than those of carbon intensity target. In particular, the involvement of the non Annex-I countries adds to the potential for lower cost abatement, reflecting the cost effectiveness of global cooperation; (3) No matter what kinds of targets are adopted in Taiwan, GHG abatement leads to an improvement in carbon intensity, average emission factor, and energy efficiency; (4) The cost of abating GHG crucially hinges on the abatement targets. The simulation results of this paper suggest that the Taiwanese government should strive for the opportunity of international cooperation of GHG abatement. Owing to its ambiguous political status, the government might try to make it through the channel of World Trade Organization. In the circumstances of failing to do so, on the other hand, the government could set the target of an improvement in carbon intensity, and collaborates with the ones possessing the same point of view so as to form the mainstream of the global economy.

並列關鍵字

CO2 Abatement ； Abatement Cost ； Abatement Strategy ； International Emission Trading ； Abatement Target

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