預料到的貨幣政策和動態調整：內生成長模型

Anticipated Monetary Policy and Transitional Dynamics in an Endogenous Growth Model

阮俊英(Chun-Ying Juan) ； 胡士文(Shih-Wen Hu)

《經濟研究》 44卷1期 (2008/01) Pp. 31-66

https://doi.org/10.29765/TEI.200801.0002

摘要

本文乃延申Chang and Lai (2000)模型，加入Greiner (1998)之政府移轉性支付設定的概念，將Chang and Lai (2000)內生的移轉性支付轉爲外生，並引進了政府支出內生化，據此，探討預料到的貨幣成長率變動對消費一資本比、實質貨幣一資本比與經濟成長率的影響。本文發現，在長期均衡時，貨幣成長率提高對實質貨幣－資本比有下降之影響，且在相對風險逃避係數等於1之情況下，短期調整路徑呈現多樣化之走勢，甚至可能出現錯向調整，有別於Chang and Lai (2000)之分析結果，然對經濟成長率之長期均衡結果則與Chang and Lai (2000)一致。

關鍵字

內生成長 ； 貨幣融通 ； 政策宣告

並列摘要

This paper incorporates the salient feature of Greiner's (1998) specification, that is, the specific fraction of government's tax revenues is devoted to transfer payment, into the Chang and Lai (2000) monetary endogenous growth model. Based on such a revised model, we examine the effect of anticipated change in the money growth rate on the consumption-capital ratio, the real cash balances-physical capital ratio, and the economic growth rate. It is found that in the long-run equilibrium, a rise in the money growth rates depresses the real cash balances-physical capital ratio. Moreover, when the coefficient of relative risk aversion is equal to unity, in the intermediate run the adjustment of relevant macro variables exhibits a variety of transitional adjustment patterns, including a misadjustment path. This result runs in contrast with the conclusion proposed by Chang and Lai (2000).

並列關鍵字

Endogenous Growth ； Money Financing ； Policy Announcement

參考文獻

陳智華、蕭文宗、謝智源(2003)。內生化勞動休閒決策下污染與經濟成長的關係。經濟研究。39(2)，147-172。

賴景昌(1994)。國際金融理論：進階篇。茂昌圖書有限公司。

賴景昌()。

蕭明福、陳淑華、張俊仁(2005)。工會、財政政策與經濟成長：一個失衡失業的內生成長模型。經濟論文。33(3)，323-350。

Aoki, M.(1985).Misadjustment to Anticipated Shocks: An Example of Exchange-Rate Response.Journal of International Money and finance.4,415-420.