高溫熱浪衝擊下之電力風險管理與調適因應分析

Heat Wave Risk Management and Adaptation Action for the Taiwan's Electricity Sector

王京明(King-Min Wang) ； 邱齡慧(Ling-Hui Chiu)

《經濟研究》 52卷1期 (2016/01) Pp. 1-37

摘要

氣候暖化為當前全球不可避免的趨勢，世界各國亦將如何因應氣候暖化列為施政重點工作之一，氣候變遷下減緩與調適亦是政府與人民的重要課題。未來氣候變遷之衝擊程度與影響於目前仍充滿不確定性，且相關數據基礎調查也曠日費時，因此在此緩不濟急之情況下，需優先建構氣候風險評估與調適管理策略，台灣電力公司扮演著能源部門電力供應者的重要角色，如何在氣候變遷下調適準備為台灣電力公司當務之急，特別是尋求氣候暖化導致熱浪衝擊所造成風險之因應，評估高溫熱浪對電力部門的風險衝擊，適時規劃好所需的調適策略與方法。本文採用預期成本效益的量化分析評估方式，探討在高溫熱浪的風險情境下，台灣電力公司面臨此氣候衝擊風險之調適決策的經濟可行性，並運用隨機成本效益分析的概念篩選出適當之調適決策，並比較所研擬出的各項調適對策在長期所產生的預期效益。藉由本文的研究，期望提供台灣電力公司或相關業者具價值的參考素材，以作為電力部門建構氣候不侵調適政策之參考。

關鍵字

氣候暖化 ； 熱浪 ； 調適決策 ； 隨機成本效益分析

並列摘要

The rise in global mean temperature has been accompanied by changes in the extreme weather and climate variability. Implementing adaptation action plans in various sectors is currently one of the top priorities for Taiwan’s governmental policy agenda to fight the negative impacts from climate change. The electricity sector plays a key role for the energy industry's climate adaptation. A risk assessment of the impact from climate change on Taiwan's electricity system identifies that heat wave events from climate warming are the major risks. How to cope with the possible impacts of these extreme events and prepare appropriate adaptation is a necessary and urgent task for a utility company. This study identifies and analyzes the risk from heat wave events and formulates appropriate actions for heat wave risk management adaptation for this sector. We adopt the framework of decision making under risk and uncertainty and carry out a stochastic cost and benefit analysis for heat wave risk management. Current and future impacts of weather and climate change on power sectors are prioritized by a multi-criteria analysis to assess the vulnerability of Taiwan's power system. Appropriate adaptation actions for the electricity sector are presented herein. Finally, we streamline our heat wave adaptation actions into the risk management of the governmentrun utility company, Taipower. Our study contributes significantly to risk reduction on the heat wave impact of climate change and to the design of adaptation actions for Taiwan's electricity sector.

並列關鍵字

Global Warming ； Heat Wave ； Adaptation Decisions ； Stochastic Cost and Benefit Analysis

參考文獻

台灣電力公司 Taiwan Power Company (2014, 2015)，http://www.taipower.com.tw/

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經濟部能源局 Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs (2015)，https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/Mobile/news/News.aspx?kind=1&menu_id=8671&news_id=41617

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