Explaining the Fiscal Theory of Price Level Determination and Its Empirical Plausibility for Taiwan

本文以一個簡單的動態模型，來解說均衡物價的財政理論(fiscal theory of the Price level, FTPL)。該理論宣稱在李嘉圖體制下，物價是由貨幣政策所決定。在非李嘉圖體制下，物價則是由政府預算限制式所決定。本文首先介紹 FTPL 的主要論點：固定利率法則之下物價的確定性；李嘉圖與非李嘉圖體制在時間序列觀察上的等同；在特定財政法則下貨幣政策喪失對物價的影響；泰勒法則無法穩定通貨膨脹等。接者討論對該理論的批評。最後則實證台灣是處於李嘉圖或是非李嘉圖體制。

關鍵字

均衡物價的財政理論；財政政策主導；李嘉圖體制與非李嘉圖體制；衝擊反應函數

並列摘要

This paper illustrates the propositions of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) using a simple dynamic framework. The FTPL argues that in a Ricardian policy regime, the price level is determined by the monetary variables. In a non-Ricardian policy regime, the government's solvency constraint provides an additional restriction that helps pin down the price level. This paper begins with the main propositions of the FTPL. These include the price level determinacy under an interest rate rule, the observational equivalence between the Ricardian and the non-Ricardian policy regime, the ineffectiveness of monetary policy on price control under specific fiscal rule, and the tight money paradox by which an aggressive interest rate rule can lead to explosive inflation. We then discuss the critiques of the theory, such as the fragility of the theory and the over-determination of price level. The last part examines whether Taiwan is in a Ricardian or a non-Ricardian policy regime.

並列關鍵字

Fiscal theory of the price level ； Fiscal dominant ； Ricardian and non-Ricardian policy regimes ； Impulse response function

參考文獻

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