物價決定之財政理論－以台灣資料檢驗

Is the Fiscal Theory of The Price Level Applied to Taiwan’s Data?

李宜賢(Yi-Shien Lee)

指導教授 ： 莊希豐

淡江大學/商學院/經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2006.00075

摘要

在九○年代興起了一個新的財政理論－物價決定之財政理論 (The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level,FTPL)，該理論宣稱物價水準是由政府預算限制式所決定，財政變數影響物價水準的之決定，並非如傳統上所言，物價水準是由貨幣面所決定。Woodford (1995)將物價水準由財政面決定定義為“非李嘉圖制度”；而物價水準由貨幣面決定定義為“李嘉圖制度”。因此，本文首先介紹一些FTPL的主要論點及討論對該理論之批評。
為了找尋台灣現在或是過去，是否存在非李嘉圖制度之現象。因此本文採用三種檢驗方法。首先，我們以Canzoneri et al.(2001b)的方法，建立一個VAR模型，探討盈餘/GDP的衝擊對債務/GDP的影響，以判斷經濟體系是否處於非李嘉圖制度，但並未發現台灣的經濟是處於非李嘉圖制度。接著，以Sala (2004) 的方法，建立一個VAR模型，探討實質稅收的衝擊對於實質GDP、實質稅收、實質支出、實質利率、實質債務之影響，若實質稅收的衝擊對實質利率的影響為正向的，則判斷為非李嘉圖制度，因此我們檢驗出台灣在1968年至1982年可能處於非李嘉圖制度。最後，利用Granger因果關係檢定盈餘和債務及盈餘和通貨膨脹率之間的關係，並未發現台灣是處於非李嘉圖制度下。

關鍵字

物價決定之財政理論 ； 財政政策 ； 物價決定 ； VAR模型

並列摘要

The fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) has been recently received important attention as an alternative theory of price determination. This theory asserts that if primary surpluses evolve independently of nominal debt, the price level has to adjust to satisfy the intertemporal budget constraint of the public sector. In this “Non-Ricardian” regime, fiscal policy dominates monetary policy, and fiscal policy is the nominal anchor. In the alternative “Ricardian” regime, surpluses respond to debt, and monetary policy is the nominal anchor. So this paper raises some propositions and the critiques of FTPL.
Then, the relevance of the theory for Taiwan is examined, and three extensions to the empirical studies of the FTPL are proposed. First, based on VAR on Surplus/GDP and Liabilities/GDP, following the approach of Canzoneri et al.(2001b), there is no evidence to say that Taiwan would have led to an Non-Ricardian regime. Second, the methodology initiated by Sala (2004) is applied to this study. Sala points out that in the Non-Ricardian regime, the response of real interest to an innovation in real tax revenue is positive. Accordingly, the result for Taiwan in 1968-1982 could be classified as the Non- Ricardian regime. Last, Granger Causality are tested for the sample period. It is found that FTPL is not applicable to Taiwan in those periods.

並列關鍵字

Fiscal Theory of The Price Level ； Fiscal Policy ； Price level determinacy ； VAR Analysis

參考文獻

Ho, Tai-kuang (2005), Explaining the Fiscal Theory of Price Level Determination and Its Empirical Plausibility for Taiwan. Academia Economic Papers 33(2),241-277.

Afonso, António (2002), Disturbing The Fiscal Theory of The Price Level: Can it fit the EU-15? 10th International Conference on Panel Data.

Afonso, António (2005), Ricardian Fiscal Regimes in the European Union. LACEA 2005 conference.

Ballabriga, Fernando C. and Martinez-Mongay, Carlos (2005), Sustainability of EU Public Finances. European Commission Economic Papers 225.

Bassetto, Marco (2002), A Game-Theoretic View of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. Econometrica 70(6), 2167-2195.