工資流動性與終身不均度的年群分析

A Cohort Analysis on Earnings Mobility and Life-Time Inequality

鄭保志(P. C. Roger Cheng)

《經濟論文叢刊》 32卷3期 (2004/09) Pp. 369-393

https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2004.323.4

摘要

所得流動與所得分配同為重要的經濟公平議題,為能掌握生活水準的高低,終身所得應是比單其所得為佳的衡量指標。但由於台灣現有的資料多屬橫斷面性質,欠缺長時期的追蹤調查資料,故以往的實證文獻多以單期的所得分配為探討重點。本文利用1978-2002共25年的人力運用調查,依其「樣本輪換」特性來進行相鄰兩年資料的合併,透過前後兩年工資所得間的相關係數,來掌握男性受雇者的工資流動性,並參照Deaton and Paxson(1994b)的作法,將其變化拆解為年群、年齡及年度等三種效果。實證結果發現：（1）越晚出生的年群其流動性越低；（2）隨著年齡增長,工資流動性持續下降；（3）流動性與景氣有同向變動的趨勢。此外,本文也嘗試去估計以十年為期的多期不均度,發現越晚出生的年群所面對終身所得分配不均的問題越嚴重。

關鍵字

工資流動性 ； 終身不均度 ； 年群效果

並列摘要

Mobility is as important as equality to the subject of economic fairness. To gauge the inequality of living standards in a society, the distribution of lifetime incomes should be more relevant than that of single-period incomes. However, most empirical studies in Taiwan have focused on the latter because of the lack of longterm panel data. This paper uses matched cross sections from the 1978–2002 Manpower Utilization Surveys (MUS) to construct an index of mobility using the correlation coefficient, and follows Deaton and Paxson (1994b) to decompose patterns of short-term earnings mobility for male employees into cohort, age, and year effects. Empirical results show that (1) mobility has become lower among younger cohorts, (2) mobility decreases with age, and (3) mobility exhibits procyclicality property. Also, this paper estimates inequality of earnings summed over 10 years, and concludes that the distribution of lifetime incomes turns out to be more unequal among younger cohorts.

並列關鍵字

earnings mobility ； lifetime inequality ； cohort effect

參考文獻

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