透過婚姻市場的運作,性比例(男性相對於女性人口之比值)將會影響相關人口的婚姻前景、勞動參與及其他社經變數。然而,實證研究普遍觀察到的性比例與社經條件之間的相關性卻可能會受到遺漏變數與同時性問題的影響而產生偏誤。本文藉由探索戰後初期外省人口大規模遷徙所形成的自然試驗,使用1946-1951年移民人口的懸殊性比例做為工具變數,研究性比例對戰後出生世代人口婚姻前景與社經結果的影響。實證結果顯示性比例的增加會提升女性結婚的比例、擴大家庭規模,並降低女性的勞動參與率與提高居住於自有住宅的比例。實證結果大致符合婚姻理論模型的預測,亦即性比例的增加會提升女性在婚姻市場中的協商能力,進而改善女性的社經條件。
Sex ratios (i.e., the relative numbers of men and women) can affect marriage opportunities, labor force participation and other socioeconomic outcomes. A common problem with many studies, however, is omitted variable bias and reverse causality in the observed correlation between sex ratios and socioeconomic outcomes. This paper exploits the natural experiment provided by the Chinese migration during the period from 1946 through 1951 to identify the effect of sex ratios on the native-born generation. The empirical results suggest that high sex ratios had a large positive effect on the likelihood of female marriage, family size and the homeownership rate, and a large negative effect on female labor force participation. The empirical results thus provide evidence consistent with the theory of marriage in which an increase in the sex ratio increases female bargaining power in the marriage market, leading to a change in socioeconomic outcomes that is favorable for women.