人口結構變遷對房價影響分析

扶養比是人口結構改變的重要指標，可反映生產人口的經濟壓力，以往許多文獻探討扶養比對儲蓄與財富累積的影響，但對於人口結構改變對房地產市場的影響鮮少討論。在台灣生育率持續下降的同時，人口也逐漸的老化，人口結構失衡已經衍生為台灣的重要國安問題。在此同時住宅需求卻無止盡的增加，也推升了國內的房價，究竟這樣的房價上升是否與人口結構變化有關? 長期而言，房價是否反映少子化與人口老化的影響? 本文的實證結果顯示房價分別與生育率和扶老率有長期的整合關係，房價會隨著生育率和扶老率變化，生育率增加會帶動房價的上升，扶老率增加則會降低房價，故當前日益嚴重的少子化與人口老化趨勢，可能會對未來房價產生負面衝擊。

關鍵字

生育率；扶老率；追蹤資料；共整合分析

並列摘要

The dependency rate is an indicator of demographic structure that usually is used to measure the pressure on productive population. A high dependency ratio can cause serious problems for a country if a large proportion of a government’s expenditure is on health, social security and education, which are most used by the youngest and the oldest in a population. Many previous studies have found that the dependency rate was the main determinant of household saving or wealth accumulation. This study tries further to clarify whether demographic changes, especially the dependency rate, affects housing prices. The empirical results reveal that house prices are cointegrated with the fertility rate and old dependency rate, respectively. In the long run, an increase in the fertility rate increases house prices. However, an increase in the old dependency rate reduces house prices. The expected demographic change in 2015 is an important signal of housing price change.