不同都市房價差異程度之研究

A Study on Housing Price Differences among Cities

卓美昕(Mei-Hsin Chuo)

指導教授 ： 彭建文

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/不動產與城鄉環境學系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

1993年高雄市家戶可支配所得為台北市的0.79倍，房價差異程度為0.43倍，在2012年高雄市家戶可支配所得為台北市0.69倍，但房價差異程度則為0.26倍，顯示家戶可支配所得與房價的差異程度隨時間有擴大的趨勢，又以都市房價差異程度較為明顯。因此，本研究將以臺灣四大都會區1993年至2012年的中古屋、預售新成屋房價資料為研究範圍，透過縱橫資料分析法(panel data analysis)同時考慮不同都市的橫斷面與時間序列資料進行實證分析，進而釐清造成都市房價差異的關鍵因素。
實證分析結果可知，造成房價差異程度之影響因素以平均每人可支配所得、勞動參與率、壯年人口比率及住宅家戶比的影響較為顯著，而不同都市房價差異隨時間經過呈現逐步擴大或成長趨緩現象，但於短期間將不會出現差異程度縮小之情形。另外，可知都市間房價關係，仍以空間區位鄰近的台北市及新北市其房價的影響較為顯著，彼此房價互為領先落後關係，將可提供相關資訊預測下一期房價，使其房價影響關係較為密切，使得房價差異程度較台中市及高雄市來的小。最後藉由本文之實證分析結果可知，都市房價差異程度仍呈現穩定的比例關係擴張變動，而都市間房價則以相鄰區域其房價領先落後關係較為明顯。

關鍵字

共整合分析 ； 都市房價差異 ； 房價影響因素 ； 領先落後關係

並列摘要

In 1993, the gap of household disposable income between Kaohsiung City and Taipei City was 0.79 times, and the gap of house price was 0.43 times; in 2012, the gap of household disposable income between Kaohsiung City and Taipei City was 0.69 times, but the gap of house price was 0.26 times. It reveals that the gap of household disposable income and the gap of house price between these two cities tend to expand over time, especially the gap of urban house price in these two cities. Therefore, this research mainly focuses on the price of pre-owned houses and presold houses of four major metropolitan areas in Taiwan from 1993 to 2012, using panel data analysis. The cross-sectional and the time series data of different cities were both considered in the empirical study in order to clarify the key factors that cause the gap of urban house prices among cities.
In addition, this research also explores the relationship of urban house prices between cities. The result shows that the close spatial location has significant impact on the lead-lag relationship of house price between cities, especially in Taipei City and New Taipei City. This can offer the related information to forecast the house price of the next season. And the gap of house price between Taipei-New Taipei city are significantly smaller than Taipei-Taichung and Taipei-Kaohsiung. Overall, by the results of the empirical study, the present study shows that the gap of urban house price still change steadily with an expansion ratio, in addition, the house price of close spatial location has significant impact on the lead-lag relationship of urban house price between cities.

並列關鍵字

Cointegration Test ； Regional Price Differences ； Factors Affecting Housing Prices ； Lead-Lag Relationship

參考文獻

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