Pension Reform in Taiwan: A Macroeconomic Analysis

台灣的年金改革－以總體經濟學角度分析

鄭宇翔(Yu-Hsiang Cheng) ； 林軒馳(Huan-Chih Lin) ； 田中敦子(Atsuko Tanaka)

《經濟論文叢刊》 48卷1期 (2020/03) Pp. 1-30

https://doi.org/10.6277/TER.202003_48(1).0001

摘要

This paper quantifies the fiscal costs of different policy reforms in Taiwan that achieve the goal of a self-financed pension system. We build a general equilibrium life-cycle model with endogenous labor supply on both intensive and extensive margins, consumption, savings, and benefit claiming. We conduct counterfactual analysis to evaluate the impacts of various reforms that could balance the pension budget while taking current demographic changes into account. We find that the pension system can be self-financed if the government (i) increases income taxes by 5.4%, (ii) increases consumption taxes by 6.2%, (iii) increases pension taxes by 9.3%, or (iv) decreases the pension benefits by 23.5%. We also compare our results with those from a partial equilibrium model, often used in the existing studies. The comparison highlights the importance of the general equilibrium effects and indicates that partial equilibrium analysis underestimates the negative effects on the labor supply.

關鍵字

pension reform ； labor supply ； intensive margin ； extensive margin

並列摘要

本文為達到退休金自籌的制度目標，針對台灣不同年金改革方案下的財政成本進行量化分析。我們建立生命週期的一般均衡模型，納入集約邊際及外延邊際的勞動供給、消費、儲蓄及退休時機作為內生變數，並在考量當前人口結構變化下利用反事實分析法評估各種年金改革方案達到平衡預算的影響。本研究發現，若政府（1）提高綜合所得稅5.4%、（2）提高消費稅6.2%、（3）提高自提退休金9.3%，（4）降低退休給付23.5%，將可能達到自籌的年金制度。另外，本研究發現部分均衡分析可能低估了對勞動供給的負面影響，而研究結果的差異突顯一般均衡效果的重要性。

並列關鍵字

年金改革 ； 勞動供給 ； 集約邊際 ； 外延邊際

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