摘要
俄羅斯已成爲全球能源大國，對內能源產業的發展是穩定、促進和制約國家經濟成長的首要因素，對外則是全球第二大原油和第一大天然氣供應國。所以，了解俄羅斯的原油和天然氣政策，是一個重要的研究課題。本文採用公共政策分析方法，研究俄羅斯能源政策與產業的發展問題，分析普京以擴增原油與天然氣產量爲目標的能源政策，提高油氣產量既可以促進國內經濟成長，又可以提高俄羅斯在全球油氣市場的佔有力，提升俄羅斯的國際影響力。是故，本文首先分析俄羅斯的能源產業與總體經濟，接著對俄羅斯原油及天然氣的戰略佈局進行深入的分析，關切的重點在原油和天然氣資源及其運輸管線的國有化，原油管線、油氣出口與對外政策，成立能源交易所及建立原油儲備制度等政策。最後探討能源戰略的執行效果，並以原油和天然氣的價格及產量對每人平均國內生產毛額進行格蘭杰因果關係檢定(Granger Causality Tests),再以衝擊反應函數(Impulse Respond Function)來評估俄羅斯原油和天然氣政策的執行績效，本文發現國際原油價格的上漲對俄羅斯經濟成長的預測具有顯著的格蘭杰因果關係和正向的衝擊反應，而原油產量的上升對經濟成長的格蘭杰因果關係並不顯著，且對經濟成長的衝擊反應也相當些微。
並列摘要
Russia has already become a global energy giant. Domestically, the Russian energy industry is a stable primary factor in the economic growth of the country, both promoting and restricting it. Internationally, Russia is the world's second largest crude oil supplier and largest supplier of natural gas. Thus understanding the energy security strategy of Russia is an important subject for research. This paper uses public policy analysis as the method by which to study the Russian energy industry. It analyzes the problems and development of the energy market and the industry's structure. It discusses which kind of policy Russia adopts to solve its energy industry crisis and strengthen its national power causing, thereby maximizing national interests. This paper firstly analyses the energy industry of Russia, including a historical development overview, the current situation of industrial structure and worldwide positioning. This paper then goes on to analyse the overall arrangement of Russian energy strategy. This includes the important strategies of nationalization of energy resources, petroleum and natural gas transportation, crude oil pipelines, petroleum and natural gas export policy, the establishment of energy trading and the setting up of the storage system of crude oil in terms of one's power and energy investment. The Granger Causality test is used to examine causality between crude oil prices and per capita Gross Domestic Production. Impulse Respond Function is also used to judge the impact of changing crude oil price to per capita Gross Domestic Production. We found that an increase in the output of crude oil did not Granger Cause economic growth and the impulse response to development in economy was slight. However, the increase in crude oil prices was shown to be a significant influence and positive impulse response on predicted economic growth.