臺灣中型城市建築火災空間分析－以員林市為例

在各類災害中，火災是都市地區常見的災害類型。相關文獻常以公共場所重大傷亡火災模擬或針對建築物使用類型、局部構造、設備等為尺度討論，並以空間量化統計及環境敘述呈現，偏重在於個別建築物案例的分析，並常以迴歸分析進行探討。然而，火災地點與其鄰近空間環境有高度相關，而於探討都市火災與鄰近社區環境，包含社會及經濟屬性時，必須考慮到社區之間並非同質的差異性，即社區異質性。爰而，火災空間異質性和空間自相關現象，在文獻中尚未備仔細研議，此皆將使都市火災發生理論的解釋能力受空間變異影響降低。此外，在實證分析的文獻中，都市火災研究多以臺灣六都為對象進行討論。本研究則以臺灣中型城市，彰化縣員林市，做為案例進行探討。採用平均最近鄰分析發現建築物火災呈現空間聚集現象，再經核密度評估法及空間自相關之空間相關性局部指標（LISA）找出建築物火災潛勢區及熱區。研究成果發現潛勢區核密度值較高及熱區（HH）皆集中於都市計畫區內。因此透過都市建築物火災理論選取人文社經特徵及都市空間型態等變項，並藉由「最小統計區」及「網格」等兩種不同樣本大小，分別進行傳統迴歸分析以及空間落遲模型與空間誤差模型作分析比較，以尋求最合適之空間模式。分析以空間誤差模型為影響因子較佳的估計，並驗證建築物火災與區域空間特性確實有空間變異之現象存在。經實證結果發現邊長50公尺「網格」較「最小統計區」為最小空間單元，有較佳解釋率，且分析結果更符合常理認知。故經網格建築物火災發生率之空間誤差模型結果分析以人口密度、中低收入戶人口數比、商業區面積比、純住宅區面積比、製造業區面積比、宗教區面積比呈正相關。本研究成果，除了提供建築物火災發生率更詳細的空間分析，亦供相關研究及未來都市規劃進行空間設計管制之參考。

關鍵字

都市火災；空間自相關；最小統計區；核密度評估法；迴歸分析

並列摘要

Among the all kinds of disasters, fire is a common disaster in urban areas. It is often discussed on the scale of heavy casualties and fire simulation in public places or on the scale of building type, structure, equipment, etc., and presented with spatial statistics and environmental description, that often studying with regression analysis. However, the spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity of fire have not been carefully studied in literature, which will lack of the explanatory power of urban fire theory due to spatial variability. This study we choose Yuanlin City, a medium-sized city in Taiwan, as a case study. And that uses average nearest neighbor to find out the spatial aggregation phenomenon in the building fire, and then uses the kernel density estimation and the index of the Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) find out the building fire potential and the so called "hot zone". Our results show that the high potential area and the hot zone (HH) are concentrated in the urban area. That also indicates that the humanistic socio-economic characteristics and urban spatial patterns were selected through the urban buildings fire theory. We then construct different models including the ordinal regression analysis, spatial lag model and spatial error models for analysis. Two groups with different sample scale, including "statistical area" and "cell", were used to find out the relatively appropriate model. Our empirical findings concluded that the best model is the spatial error model, and confirmed the hypothesis of the spatial variability in building fire and regional spatial characteristics. The empirical results also show that the cell grid with 50 by 50 meters square which is the smaller space unit than the "statistical area" has higher model goodness-of-fit, namely the R-squared. And the spatial error model of the grid's building fire incidence rate was positively correlated to variables of population density, population ratio of low- and middle-income households, area ratio of commercial district, area ratio of residential district, area ratio of Industrial district and area ratio of religious district.

並列關鍵字

Urban fire disaster ； Spatial autocorrelation ； Minimum statistical area ； Kernel density assessment ； Regression analysis

參考文獻

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陳威哲、陳建元（2018），嘉義縣火災易致災區域分析，「臺灣災害管理研討會」，新北市，第 668-689 頁。 doi:10.6857/CDMT.201811.0059

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