Gone With the Wind?: Legitimacy and Governor Patten's Popularity in the Transition Period

政治過渡期間香港政府合法性與港督彭定康“受歡迎程度”之關係

孫同文(Milan Tung-Wen Sun) ； 連鵬(Peng Lian)

《中國行政評論》 4卷3期 (1995/06) Pp. 75-104

https://doi.org/10.6635/cpar.1995.4(3).03

摘要

英國政府與中共政府近年來爭執不休的焦點，一直圍繞著香港政府和港督彭定康是否有合法的權力來設計和建構一套影響力超越一九九七年的選舉制度。本文強調有關「合法性」的爭議應該依據政府施政結果為衡量的標準。運用港督「受歡迎程度」做為所謂「施政結果合法性」這個概念的操作指標，實證研究的結果顯示港督「受歡迎程度」與其媒體曝光率有正比的關係，但是卻與其就職時間呈反比。另一方面，中（共）英談判含有的「澄清效果」對於港督「受歡迎程度」有統計上的正比關係。就本文資料所涵蓋的時期中，港督定康「受歡迎程度」一直保持平穩的狀態，說明了香港居民承認了香港政府和港督政治改革的合法性。這種合法性的承認，是基於香港居民瞭解：中共政府日益擴大的影響力局限了香港政府和港督在政治過渡時期施政的能力。

關鍵字

施政結果合法性 ； 澄清效果 ； 中英談判 ； 時序分析

並列摘要

The recent and on-going political disputes between British and Chinese governments are centered around the question whether the Hong Kong government and Governor Chris Patten are legitimate in designing the electoral system for Hong Kong before and after 1997. It is proposed in this study that the concern of legitimation should focus on the criterion of ”performance legitimacy”. This research addresses the issue by using Governor Patten's approval rating as the indicator. Findings reveal that Governor Patten's popularity is positively influenced by media exposure; it decreases as the length of his service in the office increases. The Sino- British talks, especially the ”disillusion effect”, have a positive and significant impact on Governor Patten's popularity. It is concluded that Governor Pattcn's popularity has not ”gone with the wind”; it remains stable. Local citizens recognize the legitimacy of both the Hong Kong government and Governor Patten's decisions in the transition period. The recognition is based, in turn, on the realization that constraints imposed by the Beijing government limit the Governor's ability to get things done.

並列關鍵字

Performance Legitimacy ； Disillusion Effect ； Sino- British Negociation ； Time Series Analysis