我國政府民意調查委外辦理的現狀與未來：一個簡要的回顧式探索

民主時代的政府官員，對民意的走向必須保持一定的關心，其目的不論是政務人員面對再選壓力，還是事務人員希冀減少政策執行的阻力，都需要經常性且有系統地進行民意的探索。因此，近年行政改革除了強調開放、透明之外，如何透過民意蒐集建構回應性機制，也就成為政府機關運作的重要工作目標之一。特別是對於民選行政首長與政治任命人員來說，較事務人員對於民意更為敏感，深怕政府如果無法掌握民意並及時回應，在下一次的選舉中，就會被人民所淘汰。所以，在政府部門運作過程中，「民意調查」的角色也就越顯重要。然而，以往有關民意調查的相關研究，主要圍繞在選舉民調的研究之上，雖然也有政策民調相關研究與實務上的公布，不過仍然不是聚焦在政府如何運用民意調查這個工具，來達成其民主治理的目標。特別是隨著資通訊科技的進步，如何探求「正確」的民意又再次成為理論界與實務界關注的焦點。除了以往所常用的家戶電話民意調查外，隨著Web2.0時代的到來，是否也衍生出其他的民意調查模式，而這些不同的調查模式又各自有著怎樣的特點，也就成為本文希望加以分析並探討的重點。本文針對下面三個問題，以「政府民意調查」為題，作一個簡要的回顧式探索：其一，本文將討論「政府為什麼要做政策民意調查？」這個根本的問題；其二，本文再討論「政府目前執行民調的現況為何？」透過政府電子採購網中，彙整出目前中央及地方政府針對民意調查的委託案辦理情形；其三，從執行狀況中，歸納出目前與未來政府機關可能採取的五種民意調查方式：面訪民調、住宅電話民調、手機民調、網路民調、網路輿情分析（大數據），並從樣本代表性、調查成本、調查時間、受訪者反應等面向，分析比較這五種調查的異同。最後，本文針對網路時代的到來，針對政府機關未來民意調查方式及因應作為，提出相關實務建議。

關鍵字

民意調查；公共政策；民主治理；回應性管理

並列摘要

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) has changed many faces of the relationship between government and citizen in a democratic polity. In the process of democratic governing, government led public opinion polling is not only important but challenging as well. In the 1930s, knowing public opinion by means of mail, telephone, or face-to-face interviews has brought about a significant impact on political and business life in the 20th century. However, after nearly a century of development, faced with the advent of a new internet era, traditional public opinion polling has been expected to be very different from the past. To ensure the need to know public opinion of government can be continuously satisfied, scholars need to review the possible world of future government led public opinion looks like and what kings of alternatives are there to be chosen. Especially, how can we adopt to the impacts of various web-based survey methods. In this article, authors are doing a concise retrospective review of government led public opinion polling from the past to the future by asking three questions: What is government led public opinion polling? Why government needs to do polling? How to do polling in the future? In answering the last question, authors use criteria such as sample representativeness, cost & time, and response quality and application strategies to compare and discuss seven kinds of polling methods: face-to-face interview, household telephone polls, mobile phone polls, internet polling and online public opinion analysis. Finally, this study will be summarized with recommendations.