台灣防衛性公投與美國對台政策調整

The Taiwan Defensive Referenda and US on Taiwan Policy Adjustments

林正義(Cheng-Yi Lin)

《歐美研究》 39卷2期 (2009/06) Pp. 333-388

https://doi.org/10.7015/JEAS.200906.0333

摘要

中國軍事科學院將領列出北京願意面對六種代價，阻止台灣進行獨立公投，包括：外國杯葛北京奧運、減少對華投資、外交關係受損、經濟衰退、基礎建設破壞、軍隊人員傷亡等。小布希政府不願見到北京對台灣採取高壓軍事行動，但也希望台北停止舉行抗議中國飛彈部署的防衛性公投。華府官員認為台灣沒有舉行公投的迫切需要，部分國會議員也認為小布希總統對台灣的公投過度反應。小布希總統雖沒有公開宣布「反對」台獨，但對陳水扁總統有意修憲，立即表達美國的支持有其限度。柯林頓總統堅持兩岸任何協議必須要有台灣人民的同意，小布希總統卻調整為：美國的利益在於，台海雙方和平解決分歧，需經兩岸人民可共同接受的方式。這意味台灣本身不能對其未來的地位有最後的決定權。

關鍵字

中國 ； 台灣獨立 ； 防衛性公投 ； 陳水扁 ； 小布希

並列摘要

High-ranking officers of the China Military Science Academy listed the prices China was ready to pay to stop the Taiwan independence referendum, including boycotts of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, decreasing foreign investment, worsening foreign relations, economic recession, destruction of infrastructure, and casualties among the People's Liberation Army. The Bush administration cautioned the PRC not to respond coercively to Taiwan's referendum, and disuaded Taipei from conducting the defensive referenda and expressing its dislike of the Chinese missile threat. Officials in Washington did not see a compelling need for Taiwan to hold a referendum, yet some members in the US Congress argued that President Bush overreacted to Taiwan's referendum. President Bush did not declare his opposition to Taiwan independence, but the US was prompt to state its limited support of President Chen's constitutional revision. While President Clinton once insisted that any cross-strait agreement must have the assent of the Taiwanese people, President Bush repeatedly stated that the US has an interest in ＂a peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences in a manner that is acceptable to the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait,＂ implying that Taiwan itself cannot assume that it alone will have the final say in the future status of the island.

並列關鍵字

PRC ； Taiwan independence ； defensive referendum ； Chen Shui-bian ； George W. Bush

參考文獻

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