全球電動車發展之挑戰與契機

Challenges and Opportunities for Global Electric Vehicle Development

林茂文(Maw-Wen Lin)

《石油季刊》 56卷1期 (2020/03) Pp. 1-28

摘要

電動車在全球開始出現爆發式速度成長，但是要成為市場主流可能還需要一段時間。2018年全球有超過510萬輛電動車上路，其中有近200萬輛是在中國、歐洲和美國售出。本文將先論述全球電動車概況、未來規劃與對石油產業之影響，全面性探討國際智慧電動車之發展方向；最後說明台灣電動車產業發展現況與商機。IEA的目標是到2030年將全球電動車的市占率提高到30%，同時預期到2040年，在路上行駛的電動車數量將達到3.3億輛，這將會取代約每天400萬桶的石油使用量。BNEF則樂觀的提出2040年全球電動車擁有量占比預測為33%，這顯示到2040年，人們在馬路上見到的平均每3輛車中就有1輛是電動車，且屆時在中國，每2輛售出的汽車中就有1輛是電動車。越來越明顯的趨勢是，政府與汽車廠商不斷利用政策開發電動車並逐步淘汰內燃機汽車。BP預測到2040年，占擁有量33%的電動車將可以替代內燃機汽車燃油850萬桶/日，但僅相當於當前全球每天燃油需求量的8.6%；2040年全球電動車用電量1800TWh，占總用電量的5%。臺灣積極推動電動車的運用，2018年電動機車銷售量已達12.6萬輛，但電動車的銷售量則不多，主要是以油電混合車為主。目前，在電動車方面，臺灣已實施「推動綠智能電動車行動方案」，以及電動車免徵牌照稅與減免貨物稅等推動措施。電動車發展已是未來趨勢，政府需及早因應，未來若電動車大量使用，對運輸與能源部門的衝擊及影響甚大。

關鍵字

油電混合車（HEV） ； 純電動車（BEV） ； 插電式油電混合車（PHEV） ； 車聯網

並列摘要

Electric vehicles are experiencing explosive growth worldwide, but it may be some time before EVs become mainstream. In 2018, over 5.1 million electric vehicles hit the road globally, of which nearly 2 million were sold in China, Europe and the United States. This article will first discuss the global development and future planning of electric vehicle, and the petroleum industry's influence, and comprehensively explore the development direction of international smart electric vehicles. Finally, we explain the current development situation and business opportunities in Taiwan's electric vehicle industry. The IEA has a goal of increasing the global electric vehicle market share to 30% by 2030, and it is expected that by 2040, the number of electric vehicles on the road will reach 330 million, replacing about 4 million barrels of oil per day. BNEF optimistically projected that by 2040, 33% of the global car fleet will be electric, meaning one out of every three vehicles people see on the road will be electric. Furthermore, it is expected one in two cars sold in China to be electric. It is becoming increasingly clear that the government and car manufacturers continue to use policies to facilitate the development of electric cars and gradually phase out internal combustion engines. BP predicts that by 2040, electric vehicles will account for 33% of vehicle ownership, reducing 8.5 million barrels of fuel per day. However, this is only equivalent to 8.6% of the current global daily fuel demand. In 2040, the global electric vehicle power consumption will be 1800TWh, accounting for 5% of total electricity consumption. Taiwan actively promotes the use of electric vehicles. In 2018, the sales of electric motorcycles reached 127,000 units, but the sales of electric vehicles remained minimal, mainly hybrid electric vehicles. At present, Taiwan has implemented the ＂Promotion Program for Green Smart Electric Vehicles＂, as well as promotion measures such as the exemption of license tax and goods tax for electric vehicles. The development of electric vehicles is a future trend, and the government needs to respond early. If a large number of electric vehicles are used in the future, it will have a great impact on both the transportation and energy sectors.

並列關鍵字

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) ； Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) ； Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle(PHEV) ； Internet of Vehicles