應用模糊德爾菲法於洪災調適策略規劃

Applying Fuzzy Delphi to Flood Adaptative Strategic Planning

賴炳樹(Bing-Shu Lai)

《土地經濟年刊》 23期 (2012/07) Pp. 73-93

https://doi.org/10.29605/YYWYLL.201207.0003

摘要

鑒於台灣位於極易受災的地區，如何針對各層級的國土空間規劃與管理上考慮減低其脆弱因子，提昇回復能力的手段，已成為重要的研究課題。因此本研究嘗試應用這些概念在都市空間規劃與管理並建立評估指標與模式，本研究目的為應用模糊德爾菲法與分析網路程序法於洪災調適策略規劃。希望透過本研究能夠建立具體可操作，並適用於都市之調適策略評估指標與模式，將可提供各級政府制定相關空間規劃政策與災害管理策略，包括加強生態土地使用規劃、禁止超限利用、加強集水區的保育、土地開發總量管制、都市計畫通盤檢討、劃設縣、市國土保育地區。

關鍵字

模糊德爾菲法 ； 分析網路程序法（ANP） ； 洪災 ； 調適

並列摘要

Since Taiwan is located in disasters vulnerable area, how to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance resilience thus become very important issues for spatial planning and management in different level governments should consider some measures to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance resilience. Therefore, this study tries to applying these concepts to urban level spatial planning and management and establishes assessment indictors and model. The purpose of this research is to apply fuzzy delphi and analytical network process to flood adaptation strategic planning. This study will finally establish a proper adaptation strategy assessment model which is suitable in urban level. Through this kind of research as well as others in different spatial levels, we will provide some principles and strategies for future spatial planning and disaster management policies, including strengthening ecological land-use planning, prohibiting overload exploitation, strengthening the conservation of catchment areas, establishing growth control quotas, making overall inspections to the urban planning, delineating the counties of the national conservation area.

並列關鍵字

Fuzzy Delphi ； analytical network process ； flood ； adaptation

參考文獻

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