資本市場的快速成長引發了投資者對財務分析師的需求,進而帶動學術界研究分析師盈餘預測行為的興趣。基此,本研究採用台灣經濟新報社「財務分析師資料庫」,1997-2001年資料,嘗試探討分析師預測準確度、預測態度與其影響因素。研究結果指出:(1)分析師的盈餘預測偏向過度樂觀且呈現逐年擴大的趨勢;(2)盈餘預測的時距越短,預測的準確度愈高;(3)分析師較容易正確地預測成長型與較大規模公司之EPS;而對高本益比與高負債淨值比公司之盈餘預測較為不準確;(4)分析師對於高本益比或規模大的公司會傾向較為保守的盈餘預期。另外,我們也發現分析師較容易正確地預測有發布強制性財測公司之EPS,此結果間接地說明了強制性財務預測制度的施行有助於降低投資人間資訊的不對稱。
The demand for financial analysts, rising with the rapid growth of capital markets, leads to academicians' interest in exploring analysts' forecast errors, attitude, and behavioral factors affecting earnings forecasts. In an attempt to examine this issue, we use data taken from the TEJ database, which contains analyst historical earnings estimates. By using a variety of statistical tests, this study reaches some major conclusions. First, analysts' earnings forecast errors increased over time during our investigation period and tended to be optimistically biased. Second, the accuracy of earnings estimates is negatively associated with the span of forecasting time. Third, analysts' forecasts of future annual earnings are more accurate when the predicated company is bigger or of growth-type, and less when the company experiences higher P/E ratio or debt ratio. Fourth, analysts' EPS forecasts are more conservative when the predicated company is bigger or experiences higher P/E ratio. Finally, our results indirectly point out that the required financial forecasting policy in the present regime is beneficial to the investor.